Distinguished guests, ladies and gentlemen, good morning. I want to thank the China Development Forum for inviting me to speak today. It’s an honor to be here, especially as this marks my first visit to China since joining the IMF.

This is the Year of the Snake—a year of renewal and transformation. A fitting symbol, given the pace of change around us.

Patterns of trade and capital flows are shifting. AI is rapidly advancing. Trade is no longer the engine of global growth it used to be. Divergences across countries are widening. And governments worldwide are shifting their policy priorities.

Meanwhile, global growth is steady but underwhelming. Our five-year ahead growth forecast remains at 3.1 percent—well below the pre-pandemic average of 3.7 percent.

This is largely due to declining productivity growth. Total factor productivity, which measures the ability to create more outputs with the same inputs, has been growing at a slower pace since the 2008-09 global financial crisis.

Reviving medium-term growth

My focus today, therefore, is on how to revive medium-term growth. The path to success lies in pursuing structural reforms to raise productivity.

This applies to all countries. In ageing societies—where the share of the working-age population is shrinking—productivity growth has a vital role to play in maintaining living standards.

It also applies to emerging market and developing economies trying to close the gap with richer countries. To provide better jobs and a higher stand of living, they too need to ignite productivity growth.

Without ambitious steps to enhance productivity, global growth is set to remain far below its historical average.

So, what can we do? Let me focus on two priorities that are especially relevant for Asia.

First, innovation. We know that productivity growth increases with technological advances—advances made possible through investments in research and development, a proxy for innovation effort.

Technology transfer, scientific collaboration and policies that fund basic research can foster the kind of innovation we need for long-term growth. And can have a sizeable impact when combined with closer public-private cooperation. In fact, our research shows that productivity growth in advanced economies can increase by 0.2 percentage point a year with a hybrid policy that boosts public research expenditure by a third and doubles subsidies to private research. Because these are average numbers only, the increase could be even higher in emerging markets and developing countries.

Investments in AI are a case in point. No longer an emerging technology, AI is beginning to revolutionize industries and reshape economies. We estimate that AI could boost global GDP growth between 0.1 and 0.8 percentage points per year in the medium term, depending on how it is adopted.

Second, boosting productivity through better resource allocation. The movement of labor and capital toward more productive firms and industries has long been an important source of overall productivity growth. As workers move from farms to factories, for example, their productivity increases dramatically. So too do their income and living standards, with spillovers to the whole economy.

There are many ways countries can achieve a better allocation of resources, including by implementing policies aimed at increasing the mobility of workers, such as re-skilling programs. And more importantly, by strengthening market forces, which create the necessary incentives, through prices and wages.

Asia provides an example of how such reforms can fuel growth. Over the past few decades, Asia prospered as employment and production moved from agriculture to manufacturing. Now, the region contributes over 60 percent of global growth, and is home to some of the world’s largest, most innovative companies.

Continued success, however, requires continued reforms.

Reforms such as strengthening the private sector. Entrepreneurs drive creativity and innovation, investing in sectors with the highest returns. To create the environment they need to thrive, it’s important that there’s a level playing field between the private sector and state-owned enterprises.

For many Asian countries, including China, reforms also involve expanding the services sector.

Services are a potentially important new source of growth. The sector has already drawn about half of the region’s workers, up from just over a fifth in 1990.

And productivity in some services sectors is high. In fact, our analysis shows that Asia’s labor productivity in financial services is four times higher than in manufacturing, and it’s twice as high in business services.

China

In China, reallocating resources to services would have another important benefit: by creating jobs and increasing incomes, it could help boost consumption. A welcome goal that is also a top priority of the government.

While household consumption as a share of GDP in China has risen, it is still among the lowest compared to OECD countries. A sustained increase in consumption’s share of GDP could lead to continued rapid gains in living standards and provide a welcome lift to global demand. This rebalancing of demand also requires reforms to reduce the need for precautionary savings, especially by middle- and lower-income households.

Overall, our analysis suggests that a comprehensive package of reforms to boost consumption and lift productivity could raise China’s potential growth by about 1 percentage point per year over the medium term. That translates into a level of GDP that is close to 20 percent higher than our baseline by 2040.

The IMF’s role

Through our policy advice, lending and capacity development, the IMF has consistently supported countries in establishing macroeconomic and financial stability as a foundation for growth.

To further help in this endeavor, we have formed a new IMF Advisory Council on Entrepreneurship and Growth. The goal is to get new ideas on how countries can ease regulatory barriers, adapt tax systems to a more business-friendly environment, and incentivize long-term savings, so countries have more to spend on innovation.

In this Year of the Snake, let’s embrace change and focus on reforms and policies to revive growth. This will lead to better prospects for people everywhere.

Thank you.

Remarks by International Monetary Fund Deputy Managing Director Nigel Clarke at the China Development Forum
Beijing, China, March 23, 2025

https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2025/03/23/sp032325-dmdclarke-chinadevtforum?s=03

“Tourism is a wealth creation and economic enrichment activity driven by the consumption and production patterns of people!”

“The strategy for destination exploitation of tourism is a composite of many modalities including business models and investment opportunities and not to be viewed through a myopic lenses.

Small highly service dependent economies such as ours must rely heavily on consumption to sustain economic growth, and expansion and Tourism has become the most effective way of achieving this as the propensity to CONSUME of the Tourist is 3-5 times that of the local! It means therefore that the expansion of the local market by increasing tourist arrivals creating a ‘critical mass’ is essential.

The proliferation of boutique hotels is not the answer when physical resources are limited. The strategy of Mix development modalities as Jamaica is pursuing, with mega hotels, boutique and sharing accommodation i.e. Airbnb etc is the most effective way forward.

The essential element of the strategy though is the production/Supply side of the wealth development equation! Jamaica’s focus must be on providing the goods and services that the Tourists demand to satisfy their consumption patterns! THATS WHERE THE REAL WEALTH OF TOURISM RESIDES! Agriculture, manufacturing, Creative Industries, Energy, Construction etc Then SERVICES; medical, financial, legal, entertainment, Restaurants, Shopping, transportation etc.

Please team let’s take a deeper dive in the confluence of economic moving parts that constitutes Tourism and recognize its elongated and expensive value chain so we can truly embrace the wealth it brings!”

Edmund Bartlett – Minister of Tourism Jamaica

In recent years, the Caribbean region has witnessed a burgeoning entrepreneurial spirit, with startups emerging across various industries. However, despite this growth, many startups in the Caribbean have yet to fully tap into the potential of eCommerce. In today’s digital age, eCommerce presents an invaluable opportunity for Caribbean startups to expand their reach, enhance competitiveness, and thrive in the global marketplace.

In this article, we will delve into why all Caribbean startups should embrace eCommerce, explore the potential for a thriving eCommerce sector in the region, and outline a step-by-step guide for startups to integrate eCommerce into their business models.

eCommerce, which is short for electronic commerce, refers to the buying and selling of goods and services over the internet. It encompasses a wide range of activities, including online retailing, electronic payments, digital marketing, and supply chain management. Essentially, eCommerce leverages digital technologies to facilitate transactions between businesses and consumers, breaking down geographical barriers and expanding market access.

Interestingly, the COVID-19 pandemic played a very crucial role in validating the ecommerce business model in our reason. A 2021 study by Retail Systems also found that 78% of people shopped more online during the pandemic. This trend is likely to continue for years to come.

The Caribbean region boasts a rich tapestry of cultures, landscapes, and economic activities. Despite facing challenges such as limited access to technology, logistical constraints, and fragmented markets, the Caribbean presents immense opportunities for eCommerce growth. The Inter-American Development Bank (IDB), has highlighted the potential for eCommerce to drive economic development and foster entrepreneurship in the region.

One notable player in the Caribbean eCommerce landscape is First Atlantic Commerce (FAC), a leading payment gateway provider. Headquartered in Bermuda and founded in 1998, First Atlantic Commerce (FAC) is a leading provider of secure and robust Internet payment solutions for merchants and acquiring banks in Central America and the Caribbean. Its solutions include multi-currency, real-time credit card and debit card processing, as well as online consumer authentication and other fraud management services.

FAC has been instrumental in creating an enabling environment for a regional eCommerce market by offering secure online payment solutions tailored to the needs of Caribbean businesses. Their efforts have helped facilitate cross-border transactions, mitigate fraud risks, and promote consumer trust in online shopping.

Now, let’s explore why Caribbean startups should prioritize eCommerce as part of their business strategy:

Expanded Market Reach. By establishing an online presence, Caribbean startups can transcend geographical limitations and reach customers beyond their local markets. This opens up opportunities to tap into regional and international markets, thereby increasing sales potential and revenue streams.

Enhanced Competitiveness. In today’s competitive landscape, embracing eCommerce allows Caribbean startups to stay ahead of the curve. By offering online purchasing options, streamlined checkout processes, and personalized customer experiences, startups can differentiate themselves from competitors and attract tech-savvy consumers.

Cost-Effectiveness. Compared to traditional brick-and-mortar stores, eCommerce offers cost-effective solutions for startups. Setting up an online store entails lower overhead costs, reduced need for physical infrastructure, and more efficient inventory management, thereby maximizing profitability and scalability.

Data-Driven Insights. eCommerce platforms provide valuable insights into consumer behavior, preferences, and purchasing patterns. By leveraging analytics tools, Caribbean startups can gather actionable data to optimize marketing strategies, tailor product offerings, and improve overall business performance.

Now that we’ve established the importance of eCommerce for Caribbean startups, let’s outline a step-by-step guide for integrating eCommerce into their business models:

Step 1: Conduct Market Research.

Start by conducting thorough market research to identify target audiences, assess demand for your products or services, and analyze competitors in the eCommerce space. Understanding market trends, consumer preferences, and competitive landscape will inform your eCommerce strategy.

Step 2: Choose the Right eCommerce Platform.

Selecting the right eCommerce platform is crucial for building a successful online store. Consider factors such as ease of use, customization options, scalability, security features, and integration capabilities. Popular eCommerce platforms in the Caribbean include Wipay, eZeepayments, Fygaro and GetPaid to name a few.

Step 3: Develop a User-Friendly Website.

Design a visually appealing and user-friendly website that showcases your brand identity, product offerings, and value proposition. Optimize the website for mobile responsiveness, fast loading times, intuitive navigation, and seamless checkout experiences to enhance user engagement and conversion rates.

Step 4: Secure Online Payments.

Partner with a reputable payment gateway provider like First Atlantic Commerce to facilitate secure online transactions. Implement robust security measures such as SSL encryption, PCI compliance, and fraud prevention tools to safeguard customer data and build trust in your eCommerce platform.

Step 5: Create Compelling Content and Marketing Strategies

Generate engaging content, including product descriptions, images, videos, and blog posts, to attract and retain customers. Develop comprehensive marketing strategies encompassing SEO, social media marketing, email campaigns, influencer partnerships, and paid advertising to drive traffic to your online store and generate sales.

Step 6: Optimize for Search Engines

Optimize your eCommerce website for search engines to improve visibility and organic traffic. Conduct keyword research, optimize metadata, create SEO-friendly URLs, and build quality backlinks to rank higher in search engine results pages (SERPs) and attract qualified leads.

Step 7: Provide Excellent Customer Service

Deliver exceptional customer service by offering responsive support channels, clear communication, and hassle-free returns and exchanges. Prioritize customer satisfaction and loyalty to foster long-term relationships and positive word-of-mouth referrals.

eCommerce presents a compelling opportunity for Caribbean startups to accelerate growth, expand market reach, and thrive in the digital economy. By embracing eCommerce and following a strategic approach to implementation, startups can unlock new avenues for revenue generation, enhance competitiveness, and create lasting value for customers. With organizations like First Atlantic Commerce paving the way for a vibrant eCommerce ecosystem in the Caribbean, the future looks promising for startups willing to seize the opportunities presented by eCommerce.© Germaine A. Bryan, 2024

Sources: EY.com, premierds.com

Germaine Bryan is an entrepreneur, advisor, lecturer and startup coach supporting startups and small, and medium-sized businesses in the Jamaican MSME sector. Germaine is a skilled tactician in strategic business planning and has helped hundreds of entrepreneurs build their capacity to operate at scale. Germaine is the Principal Consultant of Gerbry Business Ltd. For enquires. please email gerbrybusiness@gmail.com.

How did Munger become the sage that he was? Being a voracious reader played a significant role. Munger viewed reading as necessary for developing wisdom: “In my whole life, I have known no wise people who didn’t read all the time—none, zero. You’d be amazed at how much Warren reads—and how much I read. My children laugh at me. They think I’m a book with a couple of legs sticking out.”

Munger thought reading beyond just one discipline was necessary to become a world-wise person. He noted, “You must know the big ideas in the big disciplines and use them routinely — all of them, not just a few. Most people are trained in one model — economics, for example — and try to solve all problems in one way. You know the old saying: to the man with a hammer, the world looks like a nail. This is a dumb way of handling problems.” Source for

In Munger’s view, to be a great investor, you’d be better off reading 100 biographies than 100 books about how to invest. The key is to immerse yourself in ideas across disciplines to create your latticework of mental models. He admonished people to “Develop into a lifelong self-learner through voracious reading; cultivate curiosity and strive to become a little wiser every day.”

Charlie Munger, the vice chairman of Berkshire Hathaway and Warren Buffett’s business partner, died November 28 — less than a month short of his 100th birthday.

Source: John Jennings Forbes Contributor
I write about investments and issues that affect wealthy families.

Given Berkshire Hathaway’s great success, you’d think that Munger and Buffett had an uncanny ability to predict the future. The opposite is true: A pillar of their success is their ability to admit they cannot predict the future.

Munger has noted that he’s “never been able to predict accurately. I don’t make money predicting accurately. We just tend to get into good businesses and stay there.” Moreover, Munger didn’t place much stock in experts’ predictions either: “People have always had this craving to have someone tell them the future. Long ago, kings would hire people to read sheep guts. There’s always been a market for people who pretend to know the future. Listening to today’s forecasters is just as crazy as when the king hired the guy to look at the sheep guts. It happens over and over and over.” Source for quotes.

I think about Munger’s perspective whenever I’m tempted to click on some investment guru’s prediction about what the stock market will return or the path of interest rates. If Munger and Buffett, two of the greatest investors of all time, don’t think they can predict the future or listen to expert predictions, why should we behave any differently?

Charlie Munger, the vice chairman of Berkshire Hathaway and Warren Buffett’s business partner, died November 28 — less than a month short of his 100th birthday.

Source: John Jennings Forbes Contributor
I write about investments and issues that affect wealthy families.