The Labour Force Is Growing Less Than Before, And This Will Weaken One Essential Engine For Growth.

Welcome to this press briefing. We have just released, and it is on the internet, our Annual Regional Economic Outlook for the Western Hemisphere. This is a bit like the WEO, but for the region. And here we have two important messages, two key messages.

Need To Rebalance Macroeconomic Policies In The Region

The first one is that there is a need to rebalance macroeconomic policies in the region. And the second one is the urgency to press on with structural reforms to boost potential output growth. And I will explain this. The monetary policy part of the first message, the rebalancing applies to several of the flexible exchange rate and inflation targeting countries in the region with different degrees of intensity. The second message, the urgency to deepen reforms for growth, really applies to almost all economies in the region.

Over the last few years, the region has successfully weathered a series of major shocks in the world economy. They showed resilience and they have adopted really macroeconomic policies in most countries that are at the top of the frontier of what we know. And so far, largely the region has stayed in the sidelines, on the sidelines of global geopolitical tensions.

Now growth in the region is moderating as most economies are operating back near their potential. What is concerning, however, growth in most countries is expected to return to its low historical average and this will not help with the region’s macroeconomic, fiscal and social challenges.

Overall, we expect growth in Latin America and the Caribbean — if we exclude Argentina, which has an important rebound next year, and Venezuela with its own dynamics — growth will moderate from 2.6 in 2023 to 2.2 in 2025, going through 2.6 also this year, 2024. So, we’re going back to the lower part of the 2 percent around these baseline projections. We see the risks to near-term growth tilted to the downside, partly reflecting global risks, including importantly the persistent geopolitical tensions.

Turning to inflation, in line with global trends and also reflecting the effect of tight policies, inflation has fallen markedly since the peak of mid-2022, and it is near the target in most countries. However, it is not a target almost everywhere.

In the region, I would say that the last mile of this inflation has been rather long. We expect to continue to see easing of monetary policy, but gradually on account of sticky services and inflation expectations not being perfectly re-anchored and also because inflation risks are generally tilted to the upside, reflecting basically commodity price volatility — the factors that I mentioned before of geopolitical risks and also new risks of fiscal slippages.

So, with the output gap and inflation gap mostly closed, what should policymakers do?

We think that they need to focus on rebuilding policy space and working on boosting potential growth – the messages I mentioned at the beginning. This means rebalancing the policy mix and pushing forward with structural reforms.

Let me elaborate a bit more on the policy mix. The current combination of macro policies is generally not everywhere, but generally tilted toward tight monetary policy while fiscal policy remains loose. Although the earlier tightening of monetary policy by the region’s central banks was essential to bring inflation down, inflation is now close to target while monetary policy rates remain elevated in many countries. At the same time, however, public debt levels are high and will continue raising if we do not have fiscal consolidation.

So, at this juncture it is necessary to rebalance policies, starting with strengthening public finances. Most countries have quite ambitious fiscal consolidation plans, but their implementation –so from plans to reality — has been in such a way that they have been pushed back. It is crucial in the region that these plans proceed without further delays to rebuild the buffers while protecting priority public spending, investment, and social spending. Strengthening the current fiscal rules is also important so they can deliver these consolidation objectives.

A timely implementation of this fiscal consolidation is critical not only for fiscal sustainability, but also for supporting the normalization of monetary policy and the credibility of the frameworks more broadly. With fiscal policy moving in the right direction, most central banks will be well placed to proceed with the monetary policy easing that we expect, while remaining on guard, of course, against risks of re-emerging price pressures.

The Urgency To Press On With Structural Reforms To Boost Potential Output Growth.

Let me now speak about the second point, that is the need to press with structural reforms and I will go from need to urgency. As mentioned before, medium-term growth is expected to remain subdued, reflecting longstanding unresolved challenges which include low investment and especially low productivity growth.

Also, the region is suffering shifting demographics that will slow growth further. The labour force is growing less than before, and this will weaken one essential engine for growth. The impediments for growth are many and country specific, some are more common, and that reality is confronted with an ongoing reform agenda that is thin in many countries. This could lead to a vicious cycle of low growth, social discontent and populist policies. So greater efforts to advance with structural reforms are needed to boost potential growth and raise living standards.

We see that strengthening governance is a priority that cuts across all areas of growth. This includes, for example, reinforcing the rule of law, improving government effectiveness, and, importantly, tackling crime more efficiently. Improving the business environment and public investment is also needed to increase overall investment. While reducing informality and making labour markets more attuned to more productivity gains is important. This part of the labour market is also really important for women labour force participation, because this is one of the sources to offset the demographic headwinds.

Positioning The Region To Fully Harness The Benefits Of The Global Green Transition And New Technological Advances.

These reforms will also be essential in positioning the region to fully harness the benefits of the global green transition and new technological advances. It is disappointing that until now mining investment, for example, in the region has not picked up despite the new opportunities for green minerals. This suggests, and I quote here, “we can do better,” as the IMF Managing Director stressed in her initial annual meeting speech, that also applies to our region.

From our side, through policy advice, capacity development, and financial support, we are ready to continue engaging, supporting countries in their efforts to strengthen their macroeconomic frameworks and increase economic resilience and growth opportunities.

Rodrigo Valdes, Director, Western Hemisphere Department (WHD), IMF
Presentation made at a press briefing for the Regional Economic Outlook for the Western Hemisphere.

As a leader, you recognize the importance of inspiring your team with a compelling vision. Yet, you may find that your company’s vision statement, despite its lofty aspirations, fails to inspire meaningful change. How can you craft and communicate a future that genuinely motivates your team to take action?

The Challenge of an Inherited Vision Statement

Imagine you’re a newly promoted CEO. Among the many responsibilities you’ve inherited is a vision statement. While it might look passable on paper, it has yet to inspire you, let alone your team, to embrace new behaviors or think differently.

It’s not that you lack vision yourself—after all, your success is built on envisioning possibilities and pursuing them. But translating that personal energy into an organizational vision that resonates with others is a different challenge altogether. Should you simply rewrite the vision statement, or is there a better way to achieve meaningful impact?

Here’s a fresh approach to this age-old leadership dilemma.

Understanding How Vision Truly Works

A powerful vision fundamentally transforms how we experience the present. Think about the difference between a Friday afternoon in the office and a Sunday afternoon. The former often feels better—not because of the immediate circumstances but because of our anticipation of the weekend. This sense of future anticipation changes how we perceive the present moment.

That’s the kind of shift you want to inspire in your stakeholders. You want them to feel energized by the future you’re describing, just as you are. The hallmark of success is when individuals take initiative, make sacrifices, and go beyond their job descriptions—not because they’re told to, but because they’re inspired to.

But here’s the hard truth: a traditional vision statement alone cannot deliver this kind of transformative impact.

Rethinking Vision: Introducing the Three Levels

Most organizations begin with what can be termed a “Level 1 Vision”: a concise, polished statement, often a few sentences or paragraphs, that attempts to summarize the future. However, these statements are frequently vague, generic, and uninspiring. They might sound nice but leave people either indifferent or skeptical. Some may even feel the statement describes what the organization has already achieved, rendering it irrelevant.

A better approach is to think of the Level 1 Vision as just the “headline” of a more detailed vision framework. Here’s how to expand it.

Building a Level 2 Vision

To create a meaningful vision at this level, gather your leadership team for an offsite retreat and focus on a specific long-term horizon—typically 15 to 30 years in the future. Work together to describe a vivid picture of what success looks like at that time. This Level 2 Vision goes beyond a brief statement; it provides several pages of detail, potentially including visuals, videos, or other media to bring the future to life.

The key here is collaboration. By involving your leadership team, you not only create a shared sense of ownership but also tap into a wider pool of creativity and ambition. A well-crafted Level 2 Vision should reflect the aspirations of your entire C-suite, energizing everyone involved.

However, many organizations stop at this stage. While the Level 2 Vision is more compelling than a simple statement, it often becomes an overwhelming list of aspirations. Without prioritization (and reduction), it risks becoming unrealistic, leading to cynicism rather than inspiration. Some employees may even dismiss it as “the CEO’s wish list.”

To avoid this pitfall, you must take the next step.

Evolving to a Level 3 Vision

The “Level 3 Vision” transforms lofty aspirations into a credible, actionable plan. This involves narrowing down the vision to a focused set of achievable targets supported by a strategic roadmap.

This process requires tough conversations. Your leadership team will need to negotiate priorities, confront trade-offs, and align on a clear path forward. Engaging a skilled facilitator can help ensure these discussions are productive and lead to consensus.

The outcome is a vision that stands apart from your competitors. A Level 3 Vision includes:

– Specific, measurable results: Clearly defined goals with tangible metrics.

– Milestones: Key achievements along the journey to the ultimate vision.

– A strategic pathway: A roadmap showing how to get from the present to the desired future.

– Team alignment: Full buy-in from your leadership team, ensuring commitment to execution.

With this, your vision evolves from an abstract dream into a realistic plan that inspires action.

Communicating Across the Three Levels

Once your Level 3 Vision is established, it’s crucial to communicate it effectively. Each level of vision—Level 1, Level 2, and Level 3—has a role to play depending on your audience and context.

For example, a Level 1 Vision offers a concise, memorable summary. Think of Vision 2030 Jamaica’s tagline: “…the place of choice to live, work, raise families and do business.” It’s short, evocative, and easy to recall.

A Level 2 Vision, on the other hand, provides more depth. Vision 2030 Jamaica expands on its tagline with four National Goals and 15 Outcomes, offering stakeholders a richer understanding of the country’s aspirations.

Finally, a Level 3 Vision delivers the detailed roadmap necessary to ensure credibility and guide execution.

By mastering these three levels, you can tailor your communication to inspire stakeholders while maintaining clarity and focus. Avoid the mistake of using the wrong level for the audience or situation, which can lead to confusion or disengagement.

Conclusion

Transforming vision statements into actionable, inspiring frameworks requires more than polished language. By embracing a three-level approach, you can align your team, inspire stakeholders, and chart a credible path to the future. Choose the right level of vision for the right moment, and you’ll not only communicate your aspirations—you’ll make them a reality.

Intrigued? Interested in more? Visit the JumpLeap Long-Term Strategy Podcast and Newsletter.

Francis Wade
Jump Long-Term Newsletter and Podcast
http://blog.fwconsulting.com, http://fwconsulting.com

As a supply chain professional and strategic leader, I’ve spent years navigating the complex interplay between customer satisfaction, operational efficiency, and business profitability. One of the most important lessons I’ve learned is that the mantra “The customer is always right” can be a double-edged sword. While it emphasizes the value of customer-centricity, if applied indiscriminately, it can lead businesses into a cycle of inefficiency, overextension, and unsustainable practices.

In the supply chain industry, where precision, cost control, and resource optimization are paramount, saying “yes” to every request is not always feasible—or wise. Strategic leadership requires the courage to say “no” when necessary, not as a rejection but as a commitment to long-term growth, team empowerment, and operational excellence. Here’s why saying “no” is essential in supply chain management and how to recognize the right moments to do so.

The Hidden Costs of Saying “Yes”

In supply chain operations, every decision has a ripple effect. Saying “yes” to misaligned requests or the wrong customers can significantly impact your team, your margins, and your ability to deliver. I’ve seen firsthand how overcommitting to unrealistic timelines, excessive customization, or low-margin projects leads to inefficiencies and burnout.

One of the clearest examples comes from taking on customers whose demands exceed their value. These high-maintenance clients often require disproportionate attention, frequent changes, or premium service without paying for it. The result? Increased cost-to-serve, strained resources, and lower profitability. Worse, these customers are typically less loyal, leaving when a competitor offers a slightly better deal.

Overpromising is another common trap. I’ve worked in scenarios where teams committed to deadlines or capabilities that were not operationally feasible in an effort to secure a deal. The result wasn’t just missed targets—it was damaged trust and strained relationships with both customers and internal stakeholders. I quickly realized that when you say “yes” to everything, you inevitably say “no” to quality, focus, and sustainability.

The Strategic Value of Saying “No”

Saying “no” strategically has transformed how I lead and operate in the supply chain industry. By focusing on aligned opportunities, I’ve seen how businesses can reduce customer acquisition costs, improve retention, and enhance team morale. Instead of chasing every opportunity, we should double down on building relationships with customers who value our expertise and share our vision.

This focus will also strengthen your brand. Customers respect partners who prioritize quality, transparency, and integrity over short-term gains. Saying “no” sends a powerful message: that you’re committed to delivering value and maintaining high standards.

When to Say “No”

As a strategic leader, the ability to say “no” starts with recognizing when a request, customer, or opportunity isn’t aligned with your organization’s goals or strengths. Here are the key signs I’ve used to guide these decisions:

1. Misalignment With Core Competencies

Every organization has areas where it excels and areas where it doesn’t. In supply chain, this could mean expertise in temperature-controlled logistics, last-mile delivery, or reverse logistics. If a customer’s request falls outside these capabilities, the risk of failure increases significantly. Saying “no” in these cases ensures your team remains focused on what they do best.

2. Unsustainable Cost-to-Serve

I’ve seen how taking on low-margin customers or high-maintenance accounts can drain resources. When the cost-to-serve exceeds the revenue or strategic value a customer brings, it’s time to reconsider. Saying “yes” to these customers only creates inefficiencies that ripple across the supply chain.

3. Overburdening the Team

In supply chain operations, morale and capacity are critical. If a request would stretch your team beyond their limits, it’s not worth pursuing. Protecting your team from burnout is as important as protecting your bottom line.

4. Jeopardizing Service to Loyal Customers

One hard lesson I learned was that prioritizing demanding or misaligned customers often comes at the expense of loyal, high-value clients. Saying “no” in these instances is about protecting the relationships that matter most.

5. Conflicts With Company Values

In supply chain management, integrity and compliance are non-negotiable. Whether it’s maintaining ethical sourcing, adhering to safety standards, or delivering on promises, I’ve found that saying “no” to anything that compromises these principles is essential for long-term success.

How to Say “No” Strategically

Saying “no” isn’t just about drawing a line; it’s about doing so in a way that maintains trust and professionalism. As a supply chain leader, I’ve developed approaches to declining requests while preserving relationships:

1. Start With Empathy

Acknowledging the customer’s perspective is crucial. For example, I might say, “I understand how important this is to your operations, and I appreciate that you’ve brought this to us.” This approach shows that you’re listening and care about their needs.

2. Be Honest and Transparent

Customers value integrity. If I know we can’t deliver to the standard they expect, I explain why. For instance: “This timeline doesn’t align with our current capacity, and we want to ensure we deliver the quality you deserve.”

3. Offer Alternatives

Declining a request doesn’t mean leaving the customer without options. I’ve found success in providing recommendations, whether it’s extending a timeline, suggesting a partner, or offering a modified solution.

4. Use Positive Language

Framing a “no” positively is a subtle but effective way to maintain goodwill. Instead of saying, “We can’t do this,” I might say, “We can support you in a way that aligns with our strengths, ensuring the best outcome.”

5. Reinforce Commitment

Even after declining a request, I make it clear that the relationship is valued. “We look forward to continuing to work with you on initiatives where we can truly add value.”

In the end, saying “no” is not about shutting doors—it’s about opening the right ones. As a supply chain leader, I’ve learned that the courage to set boundaries is what paves the way for sustainable success. By focusing on the customers, requests, and opportunities that align with your strengths and values, you create a foundation for operational excellence, team empowerment, and lasting profitability. Saying “no” isn’t a weakness—it’s a strategic decision that demonstrates integrity, foresight, and a commitment to delivering actual value. So, the next time you’re faced with a tough call, remember: the power of a well-placed “no” can be the strongest “yes” to growth, focus, and resilience.

The views and opinions expressed are those of the author/s and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of companies or clients for whom the author/s are currently working or have worked. Any content provided by the author/s is of their opinion and is not intended to malign any religion, ethnic group, club, organization, company, individual, or anyone or anything.

Jermaine Robinson, MBA, CSCP
Supply Chain Management Leader | Supply Chain Services | Supply Chain Transformation | SCM Growth Accelerator