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What Does Fabius Maximus Have To Do With The Chatbot Battle Between Microsoft Corp. And Google?

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In 217 BC, the Roman dictator Fabius Maximus conceived a novel strategy in the war with Carthage. His opponent, Hannibal, had won several devastating battles, and the Roman people were ready to try something different.

Fabius knew Hannibal liked to fight and had the military power to do so effectively. Instead of meeting Carthage head on, Fabius studiously avoided large confrontations. He sent small attack units to bait Carthaginian troops into unfavorable situations and then wage havoc by destroying their food supply or by simply finding ways to prolong Carthage’s march. That ended up costing Hannibal’s large army far more in resources than it did Rome.

They didn’t have chatbots in 217 BC, but there are parallels with today’s battle between Microsoft Corp. and Google.

The search war has never been much of a competition between the two companies, but it’s a profitable one. Executing a web search is fairly cheap, and the ads account for most of Google’s $283 billion in annual revenue. Microsoft managed to turn a profit on Bing, too, more than seven years ago, despite its tiny market share.

Alphabet Inc.’s Google stands to lose a lot more if there were a fundamental shift in how people search for things on the internet. That shift isn’t a given. Developing a competent, reliable chatbot is expensive. Potentially even more costly is the ongoing expense of people interacting with the product.

The computational demands of generative artificial intelligence are exorbitantly high. An analysis of open-source software similar to what drives Bing’s chatbot or Google Bard estimates the cost of a query at 11¢, according to Alan Ritter, a computing professor at Georgia Tech.

What exactly it costs Google or Microsoft is a secret. They have their own cloud infrastructures that can be optimized to work more efficiently with their proprietary chatbots, said Ritter, who studies natural language processing.

Sam Altman, a Microsoft ally who runs the startup behind ChatGPT, has only said it’s “probably single-digits cents per chat.” Morgan Stanley estimated the cost of a ChatGPT query at a more palatable 2¢. Even that is a steep premium to a traditional web search, which can be done for a fraction of a penny, Ritter said.

Perhaps a chatbot becomes so accurate that Google or Microsoft will be able to justify a substantial increase in advertising rates. That hasn’t happened.

If every web search were to suddenly switch to a chatbot conversation tomorrow, Bing’s margins would suffer, but Alphabet’s would take an absolute beating. Even in a scenario where Google appears to win, it actually loses.

This is where the Fabian strategy comes into play. For more than a decade, Microsoft’s Bing has run a traditional battle plan on Google, with paltry results. Now the hype around Microsoft’s chatbot is ratcheting up pressure on Google to match it — likely at a great cost to the company.

Meanwhile, the Bing chatbot is only available to a limited number of people — there’s still a wait list — and in a limited way — on a search engine few people use, within a similarly unpopular Microsoft web browser or in an update rolling out to Windows 11.

A creative interpretation of the strategy is that Microsoft isn’t competing to be the No. 1 search engine but that it’s attempting to reimagine aspects of search in a way that’s less lucrative for everyone — effectively luring Google into little skirmishes it won’t win. The question is whether Google engages. It has said it’ll release its own chatbot but hasn’t committed to building it into search results in the way Microsoft has.

It sure sounds like Microsoft Chief Executive Officer Satya Nadella hopes Google takes the bait, though.

“They’re the 800-pound gorilla, And I hope that, with our innovation, they will definitely want to come out and show that they can dance. And I want people to know that we made them dance.”  said Nadella in an interview with the Verge.

Mark Milian mmilian@bloomberg.net

 

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Beyond Repeated Failure: Defining a Strategy Triad

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Studies consistently show that most strategic plans fall short.

The reasons are varied, but a common mistake stands out: teams often assume they understand “strategic” planning, only to end up misguided, compromising their organizations’ success. Often, what they call a “strategic plan” lacks real strategic thought.

How Missteps Occur

If you’ve ever reviewed a company’s strategic plan, you’ve likely seen a list of ambitious goals. They may be grouped in catchy ways, but as you read through, doubts surface. Why?

You sense the organization may lack the resources or focus to achieve all these objectives simultaneously. The longer the list, the more you suspect it may be abandoned when daily issues arise, with lofty goals slipping out of view.

Redefining “Strategic”

One way to prevent this common pitfall is to rethink how we use the term “strategic.” Today, the label “strategic” is often used casually to signal importance, so much so that it’s lost its impact, and audiences tune it out.

This isn’t just a communication issue. When teams invest time in a strategic retreat, they expect the final plan to be truly strategic, yet often that’s not the case.

Typical brainstorming sessions encourage a mix of ideas and positive intentions without much structure. The result is often an extensive report of hopeful outcomes, which can look similar to other plans within the industry—ultimately, another reason for failure.

Enter the Strategy Triad

Peter Compo’s book *The Emergent Strategy* introduces a helpful redefinition of “strategic” by proposing a triad approach:

1. Aspiration: A meaningful, challenging goal that requires effort and won’t happen automatically.

2. Bottleneck: The main obstacle preventing the organization from achieving its aspiration(s).

3. Guiding Principle: A decision-making rule to help navigate actions that address the bottleneck.

Consider a store aiming to increase profits. If the biggest bottleneck is low brand recognition, the guiding principle could be to improve brand awareness through multiple channels—online, in-store, and through partnerships.

Applying the Strategy Triad

At a recent strategic planning retreat, a leadership team was challenged to apply the triad. Initially, it was difficult; identifying bottlenecks from new perspectives required collaboration and creativity, especially without cross-functional data, which led them to rely on firsthand experiences. Yet, they successfully defined bottlenecks and guiding principles that empowered employees to align their daily choices with the strategic plan. This alignment is what leaders want but is often rare.

Why Alignment is Rare

Leadership teams often avoid the challenging, healthy conflict required to build a robust strategy triad. They may take the easier path, creating lists of goals rather than diving into critical strategic planning. Alternatively, when discussions become too heated, leaders may intervene prematurely, cutting off debate and limiting essential buy-in.

To achieve meaningful alignment, it’s important to work through differing viewpoints until agreement is reached. Though challenging, this process builds the intellectual and emotional commitment needed for successful execution. By persevering through difficult conversations, leaders can significantly improve their strategic plans’ success and longevity.

Found this topic interesting? You may want to delve into my long-form content in my JumpLeap Strategic Planning Newsletter/Podcast.

Francis Wade
JumpLeap NewsletterPodcast

Framework Consulting
http://blog.fwconsulting.com : http://fwconsulting.com

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Elevate Underperforming Boards: Prioritizing Board Self-Examination

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Imagine you’ve joined a board, only to discover it’s deeply mediocre. This is your third meeting, and it’s becoming clear that the issues you sensed in the first two weren’t incidental—they’re ongoing. How do you address this underperformance?

Luckily, you aren’t the only one who’s noticed. Some members recognize that long-standing issues have held the board back for years, and while they’ve tried initiating change, nothing has stuck. These are complex, systemic challenges that won’t be resolved by casual discussions, pep talks, or a thoughtful email. Swift, strategic action is needed. But how?

I recently encountered insights from consultant A. Cecile Watson that shed light on why boards need their own strategic approach. Her perspective inspires these key reasons for why your board must implement a self-care plan.

Why Boards Should Prioritize Self-Examination

Boards are often envisioned as serving the organization’s needs. If all members align with this vision, things should function smoothly. Small differences can be ironed out, much like in the “Form-Storm-Norm-Perform” teamwork model, which illustrates the stages groups move through to achieve high performance.

However, boards today face a high-pressure environment, dealing with complex VUCA (Volatile, Uncertain, Complex, and Ambiguous) issues from the outset. While they might receive briefings, individual and group development often gets overlooked in the rush to deliver.

This traditional expectation—that boards serve swiftly, even if under-informed—faces scrutiny in Watson’s latest article. She argues that boards must practice self-reflection and strategy if they’re to excel. Smart people on a board don’t guarantee a high group IQ or EQ; in fact, group performance can suffer if proactive measures aren’t in place.

What does your board need? A new level of self-care. Watson suggests that boards operate as a kind of strategic unit, managing their performance preemptively. Failing to do so only perpetuates mediocrity.

The Case for Board Self-Strategy

Typically, boards focus on “strategic planning” for their organization’s future. Watson’s approach takes this one step further: boards must also strategize for themselves. As a unit, they need the space to address their own evolution.

This doesn’t mean ignoring corporate planning. In fact, I’ve previously recommended that board members actively engage in their organization’s strategic retreats, where they contribute to shaping long-term goals.

Yet, once these retreats end, some boards must adapt as well. For instance, one board I worked with chose to refresh its membership, reducing both the average age and tenure of its members to bring new perspectives aligned with the strategic plan.

In another case, a board had grown complacent. Members showed up sporadically, often unprepared. This lack of accountability permeated the organization, undermining its standards and culture.

Unfortunately, board evaluations alone rarely spark transformation. Instead, Watson advocates for a written Board Strategy, a guiding document that steers the board’s actions.

Creating a Strategy for the Board

Watson advises boards to define a vision for themselves and set measurable milestones to ensure the plan stays on course. While this may sound overwhelming for already busy board members, it’s ultimately about cultivating the right mindset, not rigidly following a checklist.

Adopting these principles can help your board become resilient, better equipped to navigate future challenges, and able to avoid the slow slide into mediocrity that affects many corporate teams.

Enjoyed these ideas? Consider checking out the JumpLeap Newsletter and Podcast with my best longform content.

 

Francis Wade
JumpLeap NewsletterPodcast

Framework Consulting
http://blog.fwconsulting.com : http://fwconsulting.com

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The Digital Business Roadmap for Jamaican MSMEs: A Critical Path to Digital Transformation

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Micro, Small, and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs) play a crucial role in the economic landscape of many countries, including Jamaica. As the global economy continues to evolve, driven by rapid technological advancements, it is important for MSMEs to embrace digital transformation to remain competitive and sustainable. This blog explores the concept of digital business, the importance of digital transformation for MSMEs in Jamaica, and provides a roadmap for achieving this critical transition.

Defining MSMEs in the Jamaican Context
In Jamaica, MSMEs are defined based on their number of employees, annual turnover, and total assets. According to the Ministry of Industry, Investment and Commerce (MIIC), micro enterprises have fewer than 5 employees and an annual turnover or total assets not exceeding JMD 10 million. Small enterprises employ between 5 and 20 people with an annual turnover or total assets between JMD 10 million and JMD 50 million. Medium enterprises employ between 21 and 50 people and have an annual turnover or total assets between JMD 50 million and JMD 150 million.

Understanding Digital Business
Digital business involves leveraging digital technologies to create new value in business models, customer experiences, and the internal capabilities that support core operations. The theoretical framework behind digital business is rooted in the integration of digital technologies such as the Internet of Things (IoT), artificial intelligence (AI), big data analytics, and cloud computing to enhance business processes, improve efficiency, and drive innovation.

Digitization, Digitalization, and Digital Transformation
To understand the journey towards a digital business, it is important to distinguish between digitization, digitalization, and digital transformation:

Digitization
This is the process of converting analog information into digital formats. Digitization in many ways is the first phase of any effort to digitally transform your business. However, it comes with its own set of challenges, especially for MSMEs in emerging markets like Jamaica. The two primary costs MSMEs will have to account for are technology investment and user training. The cost of acquiring the necessary technology (e.g., scanners, computers, and software) to digitize records can be difficult for small businesses, who mostly operate on tight budgets and may find it challenging to allocate funds for such investments. User training often involves upskilling the employees of the to use new digital tools and processes effectively. This training requires both time and money, which can strain the resources of small businesses. These challenges can hinder progress and make the initial steps towards digital transformation more complex and resource-intensive.

Digitalization
If you are able to successfully digitize your business, this increases the likelihood of the next phase of this journey, digitalization. This refers to the use of digital technologies to change a business model and provide new revenue and value-producing opportunities. This involves using digital technologies to change business models and create new value-adding opportunities.

One of the primary challenges with digitalization lies in integration complexities. Many small businesses operate with legacy systems that are not easily compatible with modern digital tools and platforms. Integrating these new digital systems with existing ones can be technically complex and expensive, often requiring specialized IT expertise. Additionally, data stored in different formats or locations can create silos, which make it difficult to establish a unified and streamlined digital workflow. Addressing these silos often necessitates substantial restructuring of existing processes, adding further complexity to the digitalization journey.

Another significant challenge is change management. Employees and management might resist new digital processes, particularly if they are comfortable with the traditional ways of doing things. This resistance can slow down the adoption of digital tools and diminish the effectiveness of digitalization efforts. Moreover, moving from analog to digital processes often requires a cultural shift within the organization. Encouraging a digital-first mindset among employees can be difficult, especially in organizations where traditional methods are deeply ingrained.

The skills gap also poses a considerable challenge during digitalization. This activity typically demands a higher level of technical expertise than digitization. Employees may need to acquire new skills to effectively use digital tools, analyze data, and manage digital workflows. However, finding or developing these specialized skills can be a significant hurdle for many MSMEs, particularly in regions where access to advanced training and education is limited.

Digital Transformation
This is a comprehensive, strategic approach that leverages digital technologies to fundamentally change how an organization operates and delivers value to its customers. Achieving digital transformation in a business requires a holistic approach that involves integrating technology, people, processes, and culture. To successfully achieve digital transformation, a business must start by developing a clear vision and strategy. This involves defining what digital transformation means for the organization and setting measurable goals that align with overall business objectives, such as improving customer experience, boosting operational efficiency, or expanding into new markets. Creating a detailed roadmap with specific timelines, milestones, and resources is essential for guiding the transformation process.

Fostering a digital-first culture is equally important. Leadership must drive the initiative, committing to the transformation and promoting a digital mindset across the organization. Engaging employees early in the process through training and development opportunities is crucial to help them adapt to new tools and encourage a culture of continuous learning and innovation.

Investing in the right technology is another critical step. Businesses should choose scalable solutions, such as cloud-based platforms, data analytics tools, and automation technologies that can grow with the company and streamline operations. It’s essential to select technologies that integrate well with existing systems to ensure a smooth transition. Optimizing processes is also key to successful digital transformation. Before implementing new technologies, businesses should assess their current processes to identify inefficiencies and areas for improvement. Automating repetitive tasks can save time, reduce errors, and allow employees to focus on more strategic activities.

Collaboration is vital in this journey. Digital transformation often requires cross-departmental collaboration to identify challenges and develop solutions. Encouraging teams to work together ensures that digital initiatives are aligned with business needs. Additionally, forming external partnerships with technology providers, consultants, and other businesses can accelerate the transformation process by providing access to new technologies and expertise.

Ensuring data security and compliance is critical as the business becomes more digital. Investing in robust cybersecurity measures protects data and systems from threats, while compliance with relevant regulations, such as data protection and privacy standards, is necessary, especially when handling sensitive customer information. Monitoring and adapting the transformation process is essential for success. Businesses should continuously track their progress using data and analytics to measure performance against goals. Being flexible and ready to adjust strategies based on feedback, new developments, and changing market conditions is vital for ongoing improvement.

Leveraging government and private sector support can also provide significant advantages. Many governments offer grants, tax incentives, or other support for businesses undergoing digital transformation. Collaborating with industry associations and private sector partners can offer valuable resources, training, and networking opportunities, helping businesses stay informed about the latest trends and best practices. Engaging customers in the transformation process is another important step. As new digital tools are implemented, businesses must ensure that customers understand how to use them by providing clear instructions, tutorials, and support. Regularly collecting customer feedback allows businesses to continuously improve their digital services, ensuring they meet customer needs.

Finally, planning for continuous improvement is crucial. Digital transformation is not a one-time project but an ongoing process. Regularly reviewing and adjusting the digital strategy helps businesses stay competitive and responsive to changes in the market. Staying informed about the latest trends in technology and digital business enables companies to anticipate changes and opportunities, ensuring they remain agile and innovative in a rapidly evolving digital landscape.

The Need for Digital Transformation in Jamaica
Jamaica’s Vision 2030 aims to make the country the place of choice to live, work, raise families, and do business. Achieving this vision requires a robust digital economy where MSMEs can thrive. Digital transformation is essential for MSMEs to improve efficiency, expand market reach, and enhance customer experiences. According to the Global Competitiveness Report 2019 by the World Economic Forum, Jamaica ranks 80th out of 141 countries in ICT adoption, highlighting the need for significant improvements in digital infrastructure and capabilities.

The Way Forward for MSMEs
Crafting a digital business roadmap requires careful planning and a thoughtful approach to several key factors. First, it’s essential to understand and address the evolving needs and preferences of customers in the digital age. Ensuring that digital initiatives can scale as the business grows is also critical, allowing for adaptability and responsiveness to market demands. Sustainability should be a central focus, with continuous updates and optimization of digital technologies to support long-term success. Collaboration is another crucial element, as leveraging partnerships and alliances can significantly enhance digital capabilities.

In conclusion, the digital business roadmap for MSMEs represents a vital strategy for achieving sustainable growth and competitiveness in today’s economy. By embracing digital transformation, MSMEs in Jamaica can unlock new opportunities, improve efficiency, and deliver enhanced customer experiences, ultimately contributing to the broader goals of Vision 2030.
© Germaine A. Bryan, 2024

Germaine Bryan is a business developer and startup coach supporting startups and MSMEs. Germaine is a skilled tactician in strategic business planning and has helped hundreds of entrepreneurs build their capacity to operate at scale. Germaine is the Managing Principal of Gerbry Business Ltd. For enquires. please email: germaine@gerbry.business

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Should Jamaica Abandon Its 2030 Vision?

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As a Jamaican employed in an organisation, you are worried about the future of our nation. It appears as if our country is stumbling along, barely keeping its head above water. At the same time, you are aware of the power of a corporate vision.
Why hasn’t someone done the same for our 2.8 million people on the island, and the other 2+ million in the Diaspora?

The good news is that something is already in place in the form of Vision 2030. But why isn’t it changing your everyday experience?

The truth is that we need help. The two main things Jamaicans care most about – economy and crime – seem not to have progressed for decades. Instead, we want the hyper-growth of Trinidad-2004 and Guyana-2023. Or maybe even the steady high performance of the Bahamas.

Or perhaps more importantly, we envy the low crime rates of Barbados or Cayman (formerly a Jamaican protectorate.) At some point, we led all these countries in these areas.

Today, we are working hard not to slip into the same zone as Haiti.

If our leading companies can accomplish so much long-term success, why can’t our country, we wonder? While a direct comparison is unfair, maybe there are a few things we can learn from best practices accepted in your organisation.

A Joined Up, Far-Away Future

A “joined-up” future is one that lots of stakeholders contribute to creating. In a company, it means engaging the board, executives, staff, customers, suppliers, regulators, local communities and more.

Shouldn’t our country do the same?

Based on my experience and queries of colleagues outside government…we don’t know that we already have a joined-up faraway future…at least on paper. In fact, the process used to create Vision 2030 Jamaica from 2003-9 is a world-class model. As such, I have shared it at in-person and online strategy conferences as a case study.

Perhaps you recognise the summary statement: “the place of choice to live, work, raise families and do business.” In times gone, it was the tagline of speeches given by the Governor General, Prime Minister, Leader of the Opposition and many others.

But I looked over the recent Budget Debate notes. I struggled to find much of a mention. A Google search didn’t help. Here are a few ways business people at all levels could intervene now to prevent what former leaders of our country seem to be telling us…this is too important to allow it to be eaten up in regular chakka-chakka.

Why the urgency?

With six or so years remaining until we cross the finish line in 2030, we can’t afford to waste a single moment in mid-race. Remember when Miller-Uibo glanced up at the screen and lost her lead in the 400m final of the 2017 World Championships? We are likely to stumble into defeat also as a nation, unless we pay attention to the following.

A Divisive Election – You and I watch the bitter combat underway in the USA. It appears that cooperation towards common goals is impossible. Within a year, our political parties will try to win the next election by emphasising their differences. This is natural. But it’s the opposite of the intent of Vision 2030 Jamaica. Just imagine if the board of your company were divided into opposing camps. Let’s intervene so that their attention remains on what is most important.

Continuous Inspiration – Your ability to recite our National Pledge and Anthem were picked up as a child. We could elevate Vision 2030 Jamaica to that level of importance, starting with the Forward by Dr. Wesley Hughes, which states in part:

“Today, our children, from the tiny boy in Aboukir, St. Ann, to the teenage girl in Cave, Westmoreland, have access to technologies that were once considered science fiction. They seek opportunities to realise their full potential. This Plan (vision) is to ensure that, as a society, we do not fail them. “

Updated Business-like Measures – How can we know the progress we have made from 2009-2023? Are the measurable results listed in the document beyond reach? Do we deserve an A-? or a D+?

How about fresh, intuitive measures of success which tell us whether or not Jamaica is becoming “the place of choice”? Let’s measure the length of lines outside the US and Canadian Embassies for those seeking permanent residency and how they are growing or shrinking.

Wheeling and Coming Again – Companies have no problem resetting fresh objectives when the old ones no longer do the job. In business, a strategy that is not working is replaced as soon as it’s found to be lacking.

We can do the same for Vision 2030 Jamaica to keep it relevant. This is the beauty of long-term strategic planning.

An honest read of the original document reveals that certain assumptions about the government’s capacity to lead the effort were unquestioned. Today, after over a decade of effort, we have learned much. For example, it’s hard to argue that the planning done in 2009 was enough.

While we once led the world in long-term national planning, we aren’t doing the same in the more difficult world of national strategizing and execution. But there’s time.

As the clock ticks down to 2030, things are likely to become more awkward for all of us. As you may imagine,. the human tendency is to avoid the issue entirely, hoping it goes away.

That may yet happen. But if we don’t confront the gaps in our initial attempt to create a joined-up, faraway vision, we’ll block our citizens from ever believing in a national vision again.

In fact, it would be better if it were declared null and void, than ignored. At least that would have some integrity and enable us to move on to a better national vision, lessons earned.

Better National Strategic Planning

And that is perhaps the biggest lesson for all concerned. We Jamaicans say that we are great starters, but poor finishers. In other words, we know how to kick things off. But when the going gets tough, we aren’t strong at bringing them to fruition.

Said differently, we don’t know how to keep promises just because we made them.

The point here is that Vision 2030, with some five to six years remaining, puts us in an awkward spot. But that’s a lie. We have put ourselves in an awkward spot.

At some point we were strong in envisioning great things. Like a company who creates BHAGs, our executive team gave its sacred honor to accomplish a great thing, like the framers of the Declaration of Independence.

However, we haven’t put in place mechanisms sufficient to rescue our current situation. At the current rate, we won’t be closer to being a “place of choice” than we were in 2009.

In a company it’s easier to find individuals or a team of leaders who may hold themselves accountable for a game-changing result. Often, the metrics are clear.

Unfortunately, no such clarity exists around Vision 2030. And given our impending election fever, it may not come from politicians. Instead, it’s time for business to step up and bring sound strategic planning to the accomplishment of the most important outcomes of our national lifetimes.

Let’s inspire each other to intervene so we can have what we already
know we want. It won’t happen any other way.

Francis Wade is the founder of the Jump Leap Long-Term Strategy newsletter and podcast, and operates a management consulting firm.

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Jamaica Is Pursuing The Strategy Of Mix Development Modalities

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“Tourism is a wealth creation and economic enrichment activity driven by the consumption and production patterns of people!”

“The strategy for destination exploitation of tourism is a composite of many modalities including business models and investment opportunities and not to be viewed through a myopic lenses.

Small highly service dependent economies such as ours must rely heavily on consumption to sustain economic growth, and expansion and Tourism has become the most effective way of achieving this as the propensity to CONSUME of the Tourist is 3-5 times that of the local! It means therefore that the expansion of the local market by increasing tourist arrivals creating a ‘critical mass’ is essential.

The proliferation of boutique hotels is not the answer when physical resources are limited. The strategy of Mix development modalities as Jamaica is pursuing, with mega hotels, boutique and sharing accommodation i.e. Airbnb etc is the most effective way forward.

The essential element of the strategy though is the production/Supply side of the wealth development equation! Jamaica’s focus must be on providing the goods and services that the Tourists demand to satisfy their consumption patterns! THATS WHERE THE REAL WEALTH OF TOURISM RESIDES! Agriculture, manufacturing, Creative Industries, Energy, Construction etc Then SERVICES; medical, financial, legal, entertainment, Restaurants, Shopping, transportation etc.

Please team let’s take a deeper dive in the confluence of economic moving parts that constitutes Tourism and recognize its elongated and expensive value chain so we can truly embrace the wealth it brings!”

Edmund Bartlett – Minister of Tourism Jamaica

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