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Trinidad And Tobago Economic Review 2018 -2019

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Overview

Provisional estimates of economic activity in Trinidad and Tobago (T&T) point to a turnaround, with growth estimated at 1.9% in 2018. The reinvigoration was largely underpinned by recovery in the manufacturing sector (mainly energy and energy-related). Headline inflation slowed. Sustained fiscal consolidation efforts resulted in a smaller fiscal deficit. Net public debt contracted as a percentage of gross domestic product (GDP). Commercial bank credit to the private sector continued to grow.

The Central Bank of Trinidad and Tobago (CBTT) raised the repo rate by 25 basis points to 5.0% in June. Transactions with the rest of the world resulted in an external current account surplus; but the gross reserves recorded further contraction.

Economic outlook is cautiously upbeat. Output growth is projected to tick up to 2.0% in 2019; and the improvement in fiscal conditions is expected to be sustained.

However, risks to the outlook are mainly tilted to the downside.

Key Developments in 2018

According to the Central Statistical Office (CSO), GDP is estimated to have expanded by 1.9% in 2018. Preliminary data show that manufacturing was the lead growth sector. Following two consecutive years of contraction, manufacturing expanded by 7.3%. Production of petroleum and chemical products recorded the strongest growth (9.0%) in the sector.

The other notable increase came from the manufacturing of food, beverages and tobacco, which expanded by 5.6%. The reversal was a consequence of increased production and slightly higher average global prices for petroleum products in 2018. The non-energy sector recorded a marginal uptick of 0.1%.

Data to September 2018 indicate that headline inflation (period average) was contained at 1.0% year-on-year. In September, food inflation was zero, after declining for the first time in seven years in August (-0.1%). Core inflation rose by 1.4% in September, from 0.8% in April, reflecting increased costs of home ownership and higher prices for fast food meals.

Over the same review period, the Producer Prices Index fell by 0.9%, following a slightly steeper fall in June, lending further support to the low inflationary environment at the retail level.

Weak economic conditions compromised employment performance prior to 2018. No data is yet available for 2018. Data for 2017 point to an increase in the unemployment rate to 4.4% in the fourth quarter, from 3.6% in the corresponding period of 2016.

Ongoing fiscal consolidation efforts led to improved fiscal balances. Preliminary estimates indicate that the overall deficit reached 4.0% of GDP in fiscal year (FY) 2018, compared with 9.1% in FY 2017, while the primary deficit narrowed to 1.2% of GDP from 6.0% over the same period.

The Government achieved an overall reduction in expenditure of 1.7%, with cuts across most categories ‒ most notably, an 8.2% decrease in wages and salaries, and a 5.9% reduction in transfers and subsidies.

Meanwhile, total revenues increased by 17.8%, mainly based on the introduction of a 35.0% tax bracket for commercial banks; increased receipts from oil companies; and goods and services taxes. Most of the deficit was financed domestically.

Net public sector debt was estimated at 62.2% of GDP at the end of FY 2018, down from 62.7% a year earlier. The improvement in the debt position is consistent with better fiscal outturns, and the resulting reduction in borrowing requirements for FY 2018.

Monetary conditions tightened somewhat during the course of 2018. Citing a positive economic outturn during the first half of the year, as well as credit growth, low inflation and higher external interest rates, CBTT raised the repo rate by 25 basis points to 5.0% in June. The median prime lending rate also increased by 25 basis points to 9.3%.

Outcomes in the financial sector were mixed in 2018. Provisional data as at October indicate that net credit from the banking system continued its upward trend, although nonperforming loans (NPLs) also increased.

Lending to the private sector grew by 3.4% on account of an expansion in credit extended to businesses, and relatively buoyant consumer lending throughout the year. The ratio of gross NPLs to total loans, still one of the lowest in the Region, rose to 3.3% from 2.9% at the end of 2017. The reported capital adequacy ratio remained relatively stable at 24.3%.

Net official international reserves, although still well above the standard three-month threshold, continued to decline in 2018. Compared with the end of 2017, reserves fell by 9.5% to US$7.6 billion at the end of 2018, the equivalent of eight months of imports. Data to June show that there was a marked improvement in the external current account surplus, which climbed to 17.2% of GDP from 7.4% of GDP in 2017. This outturn was aided by a combination of higher exports and slightly lower imports.

Outlook

The economic outlook for T&T is one of cautious optimism. Real GDP is projected to grow by 2.0% in 2019. Despite the restructuring at Petrotrin, the energy sector is expected to drive growth, particularly in light of increased natural gas output as the Angelin project comes on stream. The performance of the energy sector will likely result in positive spillover effects into the non-˗energy sector.

In the near-term, fiscal and debt conditions will continue to improve as energy-related revenues strengthen, and efforts to contain expenditures are maintained. Credit growth is likely to rise, creating positive feedback loops to economic activity. Increased output from the energy sector is expected to also lead to improvements in the external current account and foreign reserve positions.

However, with the energy industry still dominant, the country is vulnerable to a downturn in energy prices.

Source Caribbean Development Bank Regional Economic Summary 2018

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GCT Exemption Threshold for MSMEs Increased to JA$15 Million

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The Government of Jamaica has announced an increase in the General Consumption Tax (GCT) exemption threshold from $10 million to $15 million for micro, small and medium-sized enterprises (MSMEs).

Minister of Finance and the Public Service, Hon. Fayval Williams, in opening the 2025/26 Budget Debate in the House of Representatives on March 11, said the change is aimed at supporting the growth and development of small businesses.

Mrs. Williams said the latest figures from the Small Business Association of Jamaica (SBAJ) show that there are an estimated 422,000 registered small businesses in Jamaica, generating 80 per cent of the jobs in the Jamaican economy.

“This means 1,136,240 persons in our workforce are employed by MSMEs,” the Finance Minister noted.

In addition, the Minister said the Government has allocated $2 billion to support MSMEs.

“[The sum of] $2 billion is in the Budget for the Development Bank of Jamaica (DBJ) to allow them to continue to facilitate sustainable growth of start-ups and MSMEs, and to continue to support women-led initiatives, entrepreneurship training, including digital skills bootcamp,” she outlined.

The DBJ is a public body in the Ministry of Economic Growth and Job Creation that channels financing to MSMEs, as well as large projects, to facilitate economic growth and development.

“It will continue to pursue innovative means of mobilising funding and leveraging private-sector investment and expertise through its venture capital programme, as well as public-private partnerships and privatisation transactions,” Mrs. Williams said.

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JA$2 Billion in Support to Jamaican MSMES

“Small business owners have said to me that opening a bank account for their business is difficult. They feel there’s no difference between the requirements for them as MSMEs, as opposed to a very large institution,” she noted.

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The Development Bank of Jamaica (DBJ) has been allocated $2 billion in the 2025/26 Estimates of Expenditure to support funding to the micro, small and medium-sized enterprise (MSME) sector.

Minister of Finance and the Public Service, Hon. Fayval Williams, made the disclosure while delivering the opening presentation in the 2025/26 Budget Debate in the House of Representatives on Tuesday (March 11).

“It (the DBJ) will continue to pursue innovative means of mobilising funding and leveraging private-sector investment and expertise through its venture capital programme, as well as public-private partnerships and privatisation transactions,” she informed.

Mrs. Williams noted the Government’s commitment to the MSME sector, which includes an estimated 422,000 registered small businesses, generating 80 per cent of the jobs in the economy.

Approximately 1,136,240 persons are employed by MSMEs.

The Minister acknowledged that there are several issues facing the sector, including lack of equitable access to financing, high interest rates and cumbersome requirements for opening bank accounts.

“Small business owners have said to me that opening a bank account for their business is difficult. They feel there’s no difference between the requirements for them as MSMEs, as opposed to a very large institution,” she noted.

She pledged to work with Minister of Industry, Investment and Commerce, Senator the Hon. Aubyn Hill, to reduce the requirements for the entities to open bank accounts.

The Finance Minister noted, further, that Government will be increasing the General Consumption Tax (GCT) exemption for small businesses from $10 million to $15 million.

By: Donique Weston JIS

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Jamaica Open For High-Value Agricultural Investments – Minister Green

“Now is the time for high-value agricultural investment, right here in Jamaica. Things that we produce in Jamaica are sought after all over the world. As such, we do believe there are significant opportunities now in agro processing,” Mr. Green said.

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Jamaica is being touted as a prime destination for high-value agricultural investments.

Minister of Agriculture, Fisheries and Mining, Hon. Floyd Green, highlighted that the country is at a pivotal stage in its transformation, pointing out that the Ministry’s key objectives are to drive investment, expand trade, and strengthen food security.

“To achieve this objective, the nation must collaborate with its international partners,” he told members of the Diplomatic Corps on Wednesday (March 12).

Minister Green said Jamaica, having seen a declining debt-to-GDP ratio and myriad other positive economic outcomes in recent years, is well positioned to take advantage of global opportunities.

He was speaking during a Ministerial Briefing at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Foreign Trade in downtown Kingston, which formed part of activities marking Diplomatic Week 2025.

Mr. Green said while Jamaica currently benefits from several trade arrangements with its regional partners, the Government wants to expand the global footprint in trade and investment.

“What we want to see from my Ministry’s perspective [is] how we can leverage these arrangements to do much more. As such, we want to work with you (the diplomatic corps) to drive trade expansion, to reduce market barriers and to facilitate direct connections with importers and distributors so that we can expand our exports,” the Minister outlined.

He added that there are significant investment opportunities and win-win proposals for Jamaica and its partners.

“Now is the time for high-value agricultural investment, right here in Jamaica. Things that we produce in Jamaica are sought after all over the world. As such, we do believe there are significant opportunities now in agro processing,” Mr. Green said.

The Minister emphasised that one area now ripe for investments is orchard crop farming.

“We do have land available for investment in orchard crops. In fact, we’ve developed our first ever mango orchard, or mango agro park, where we invite private-sector investors to come in and establish 50-acre blocks of mango farms. That is going well. In fact, we’ve already established about 200 acres. We want to establish another 300 acres in this financial year,” the Minister outlined.

Mr. Green also touted opportunities in livestock farming and the dairy industry, noting that Jamaica is looking to leverage partnerships in this area.

“We want to facilitate greater bilateral discussions between you and your home countries with Jamaica’s agricultural sector around investment… around connecting investors with local projects that can accelerate economic growth,” he told the diplomats.

Mr. Green pointed out that Jamaica’s collaboration with its international partners has been instrumental in advancing the nation’s economic agenda.

By: Donique Weston, JIS

Photo: Yhomo Hutchinson

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Powering the Future: How Tech and Policy Are Driving Explosive Growth in Energy Storage, Renewables, and EVs

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The energy storage, renewable energy, and electric vehicle (EV) industries are experiencing significant growth, driven by technological advancements and policy support.

Energy Storage Sector

The global energy storage market is projected to expand from USD 416.02 billion in 2025 to USD 841.19 billion by 2033, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 9.2% (Straits Research, 2024). This growth is primarily attributed to the increasing integration of renewable energy sources and the need for grid stability. In the United States, battery energy storage capacity is expected to nearly double by 2024, reaching over 30 gigawatts (U.S. Energy Information Administration, 2023).Mission-Critical Energy Storage Battery Pack Sector.

Mission-Critical Energy Storage Battery Pack Sector

The demand for mission-critical energy storage solutions is intensifying, particularly in sectors requiring an uninterrupted power supply, such as data centres and healthcare facilities. The U.S. battery energy storage system market is anticipated to witness a CAGR of 30.5% from 2024 to 2030, reaching USD 4.4 billion by 2030 (Grand View Research, 2023). This surge is driven by the need for reliable backup power and the integration of renewable energy sources into critical infrastructure.

Renewable Energy Industry

The renewable energy sector is undergoing rapid expansion. In 2024, the United States added 48.2 gigawatts of solar, wind, and battery storage capacity, a 47% increase from the previous year (The Guardian, 2025). Declining costs and supportive policies like the Inflation Reduction Act 2022 propel this growth. Globally, China has made significant strides, adding clean energy generation in the first half of 2024, equivalent to the entire electricity output of the United Kingdom for the previous year (The Guardian, 2024).

Electric Vehicle Industry

The EV market is expanding swiftly. In 2023, electric cars accounted for approximately 18% of all vehicles sold globally, up from 14% in 2022 (International Energy Agency, 2024). Projections indicate that by 2024, 25% of all new passenger car registrations will be electric, surpassing 17 million units in sales worldwide (GreenMatch, 2024). This trend is supported by technological advancements, increased consumer acceptance, and policy incentives to reduce carbon emissions. These industries are experiencing robust growth, driven by technological innovation, policy support, and a global shift towards sustainable energy solutions.

Extracted from Alexander Melville Chief Executive Officer Tropical Battery Company Limited (TROPICAL) – Interim Financial Statements For The First Quarter Ended December 31, 2024

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Corporate Movements: Margaret Campbell Appointed CEO of GKMS Group; Lee-Anne Bruce Named COO

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GraceKennedy Limited (GK) is pleased to announce leadership changes at GraceKennedy Money Services (GKMS) as part of its ongoing succession plan and strategic talent development and deployment.

Effective April 1, 2025, Margaret Campbell will assume the role of Chief Executive Officer (CEO) of the GKMS Group. Campbell, who has worked with GKMS for over 25 years, has served as its Chief Operating Officer (COO) since 2020. She joined GKMS in 1996 and has held several leadership roles during her tenure including, Financial Controller, Chief Financial Officer (CFO), and Country Manager for GKMS Jamaica. A Fellow Certified Chartered Accountant, Campbell also holds an MBA in Finance from the University of Manchester and serves on several GK subsidiary boards. She is also the current President of the Jamaica Money Remitters Association.

Frank James, Group CEO of GraceKennedy, expressed confidence in Campbell’s leadership, stating, “Margaret has demonstrated strong leadership and an unwavering commitment to providing exceptional value and convenience to our customers across Jamaica and the wider Caribbean, in keeping with our vision of being the number one Caribbean brand in the world. I have no doubt she will continue to drive GKMS forward.”

Grace Burnett, CEO of GKFG, added, “Margaret’s industry expertise and strategic approach make her the ideal person to lead GKMS into the future. Her experience and passion for operational excellence will be instrumental as GKFG continues to grow and evolve.” The announcement of Campbell’s appointment comes as Burnett, who has led GKMS since 2019, prepares to retire from GraceKennedy later this year.

Lee-Anne Bruce

Additionally, GraceKennedy has named Lee-Anne Bruce as the new COO of the GKMS Group, also effective April 1, 2025. Bruce holds a bachelor’s degree from the Frank G. Zarb School of Business at Hofstra University and is a Certified Anti-Money Laundering Specialist. With over a decade in senior leadership roles at GK, she has served as Group Chief Compliance Officer, Chief Risk Officer, and most recently, Chief Audit Executive. She began her career at GK in 2003, when she played a key role in GKMS’ expansion into the Eastern Caribbean.

Margaret Campbell, incoming GKMS CEO, welcomed Bruce’s appointment, stating, “Lee-Anne is no stranger to GKMS and her extensive experience and understanding of our business will undoubtedly be invaluable in her new role.”

In light of the leadership changes at GKMS, Judith Chung, Group Chief Compliance Officer & Senior Legal Counsel, will act as Chief Audit Executive of GraceKennedy Limited, while Jason Bailey, Head of Risk, will temporarily assume responsibility for the Compliance portfolio.

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