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Jamaica Economic Review 2018-2019

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Photo Caption: Visual Representation Of The Planned Redevelopment Of Downtown Kingston By The Urban Development Corporation

Overview

Jamaica’s economy grew by 2.4% in 2018. This was led by increased tourism and construction activity. Inflation decreased as food prices fell, while unemployment was lower than in the previous year. An accommodative monetary stance contributed to credit growth, which coincided with improvements in doing business conditions and an increase in consumer confidence.

Fiscal performance was strong; and debt as a percentage of gross domestic product (GDP) declined. The external trade deficit worsened; but the level of foreign exchange reserves was still comfortably above the required threshold.

The medium-term outlook remains positive, underpinned by a combination of higher investment and productivity growth supported by ongoing reforms. However, key downside risks, including macroeconomic and weather related shocks, policy reversal of the structural reforms, and high crime rates can derail growth prospects.

Key Developments in 2018

Real GDP is estimated to have expanded by 1.9% in the year to September 2018. The increased activity reflected positive growth in tourism, construction and mining. The increase in tourism was evident from a higher number of stopover visitor arrivals (2.21 million) (mn) over the period January to November 2018, up 5.3%, associated with an increase in airlift to the island. Construction performance was largely driven by a rise in public capital. Whereas cruise passengers numbered 1.62 mn (5.6% decline from 2017).

Headline inflation decreased to 2.4% in the year to December 2018, compared with 5.2% the previous twelve months. This outturn was on account of a decline in prices for agricultural products (in the food sub index), associated with an increase in supplies as Jamaica recovered from adverse weather conditions in the second half of 2017. This decline was partly offset by higher energy costs associated with the lagged impact of increases in oil prices.

Unemployment fell once again. Latest available data from the Statistical Institute of Jamaica (STATIN) show that the unemployment rate dropped to 8.7% in October 2018, 1.8 percentage points below the rate at October 2017.

In July, the rate had fallen to an all-time low of 8.4%. The construction and wholesale and retail sectors accounted for the largest increases in employment. Construction provided increased youth employment, as did business process outsourcing. Increased labour market participation was a result of increased, with improvements in the doing business environment and macroeconomic stability.

Central Government operations recorded a surplus for the first six months of the fiscal year (April-September 2018). This improved fiscal outcome is linked to a primary surplus of $73.8 billion (bn) or 3.6 % of GDP, above the 3% outturn for the same period in 2017.

The primary surplus reflected the better-than-expected performance of international trade taxes, production and consumption taxes, and the containment of discretionary recurrent expenditure. Revenues from taxes on income and profits were marginally lower than expected.

Public debt for Fiscal Year (FY) 2018/19 is projected to drop to 97.4%, compared with the 104.1% in FY 2017/18, thus falling below 100% of GDP for the first time since FY 2000/01. Based on the current trajectory, public debt is on track to reach 60% of GDP by FY 2025/26.

Noting the improvements in the macroeconomic and fiscal indicators, the rating agencies upgraded their credit ratings and outlooks. Fitch’s reported a B+ rating with a positive outlook (January 2019);

Standard & Poor’s upgraded its rating to B with a positive outlook (September 2018); and Moody’s assigned a rating of B3 with positive outlook (July 2018).

Accommodative monetary conditions as well as increased competition in the market for loanable funds continued to support growth in overall financing. Private sector credit grew by 16.2% in the year to the end of September 2018, compared with an expansion of 11.5% in the previous year.

The growth in private sector credit reflected increased loans and advances to both businesses (utilities, tourism and manufacturing) and households (mortgage loans and instalment credit).

Consistent with the relatively favourable macroeconomic environment, the commercial banks’ asset quality and profitability improved.

The current account deficit widened, due in part to an increase in imports. The merchandise trade deficit grew by 7.6% to US$4.1 bn in the first 11 months of 2018, on account of increased imports of food, fuels, manufactured goods, machinery and transport equipment.

However, the growth in tourism receipts, associated with increased stay-over visitors and remittance inflows, partially offset the current account deficit.

This deficit was partly financed by private investment inflows. Inward FDI was estimated at US$578.8 mn for the period January to September 2018. This was supported by a drawdown of foreign reserves, which still comfortably exceeded the international benchmark of three months of imports.

Reserves fell to an estimated 4.9 months (compared with 5.7 months in December 2017). Nevertheless, the import cover was marginally higher than the December 2014 level of 4.6 months.

Outlook

The medium-term outlook is positive, with 1.7% growth projected for FY 2018/19.

Tourism, manufacturing, agriculture, and construction are the sectors most likely to drive growth in the short term. The productivity-enhancing reforms and public investments that have been undertaken during the implementation of GOJ’s reform programme are expected to contribute to increased domestic demand.

At the same time, enhancements in agricultural productivity, especially through priority investments in infrastructure (including irrigation), will generate direct and indirect increases in incomes and a reduction in poverty.

However, key downside risks, such as a slowdown in global growth, macroeconomic and/or weather-related shocks, policy reversal of the structural reforms, and high crime, could derail growth prospects.

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GraceKennedy Announces Leadership Changes – Don Wehby Retires; New CEO Announced

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GraceKennedy Limited has announced key leadership changes, effective February 14, 2025, coinciding with the company’s 103rd anniversary.

After a distinguished tenure, the Honourable Don Wehby, CD, OJ will retire as Group CEO on February 14, 2025, and step down from the Board of Directors. Mr. Wehby joined GraceKennedy in 1995 and was appointed Group CEO in 2011. During his tenure, the company more than doubled in size with revenue moving from J$58 billion in 2011, to J$155 billion in 2023.

Expansion through mergers and acquisitions has been a hallmark of Wehby’s leadership, enabling the company to grow regionally and globally. Under his guidance, it has become one of the largest and most dynamic entities in the Caribbean, with operations spanning the Caribbean, North and Central America, the United Kingdom, and Europe. “I am proud of the progress we have made during my tenure, and I am confident that the new leadership team will take GraceKennedy to even greater heights,” said Wehby. “I want to thank the Board, my colleagues, and our customers for their support over the years,” he added.

Frank James, current CEO of the company’s Domestic Foods Division and former Group CFO, will assume the position of Group CEO on February 14th, 2025, and be appointed to the Board on the same date. Mr. James joined GraceKennedy in 2005 as Vice President of Strategic Planning and Corporate Development. James quickly moved through the ranks, occupying senior roles in both the Food and Financial Services Divisions, before he was appointed Group CFO in 2012. He was also appointed to the Board of Directors that same year. In April 2019, James was appointed Chief Executive Officer, GK Foods Domestic, the largest division in the group of companies, where he has championed growth and efficiency. Under his leadership, revenues for GK Foods Domestic grew by more than sixty percent up to 2023 and continues on that growth path, with even greater growth in profitability over the period.

“I am honoured to take on the role of Group CEO and lead the GraceKennedy team,” said Mr James. “We will continue to focus on delivering value to our customers, shareholders, and the communities we serve,” he added.

Professor Gordon Shirley, Chairman of GraceKennedy Limited, commented, “Don Wehby is an exceptional leader who sees opportunities in challenges and leads by example. We are grateful for his innovative spirit, impeccable work ethic and dedication to ensuring that the company continues to make a difference in the communities we serve. Don’s leadership and vision has been instrumental in shaping the company into what it is today.”

He added, “We welcome Frank to his new role as Group CEO and I have every confidence that his strong leadership will ensure continued growth and innovation across the business. The best is yet to come for GraceKennedy.”

Professor Shirley also expressed his gratitude to Andrew Messado, GraceKennedy Group CFO, for his exemplary leadership during the transition period, following Don Wehby’s temporary leave of absence as Group CEO, in late 2024. The GraceKennedy Chairman noted, “Mr. Messado’s steady hand ensured the company’s continued momentum, and his contributions during this period are gratefully acknowledged.”

These leadership changes are in keeping with the company’s succession plan and are designed to ensure continuity and drive future growth, in line with its 2030 Vision of becoming the Caribbean’s #1 brand with Jamaican roots and a global reach.

GraceKennedy Limited has named Frank James as its new Chief Executive Officer (CEO) as it announced the retirement of Don Wehby from the post.

In October last year, Wehby announced he was taking temporary leave from his role to focus on his health.

In a media release on Tuesday, GraceKennedy said Wehby will retire as Group CEO on February 14 and step down from the board of directors.

Wehby joined GraceKennedy in 1995 and was appointed Group CEO in 2011. During his tenure, the company more than doubled in size with revenue moving from $58 billion in 2011 to $155 billion in 2023.

Professor Gordon Shirley, Chairman of GraceKennedy Limited, commented, “Don Wehby is an exceptional leader who sees opportunities in challenges and leads by example. We are grateful for his innovative spirit, impeccable work ethic and dedication to ensuring that the company continues to make a difference in the communities we serve. Don’s leadership and vision has been instrumental in shaping the company into what it is today.”

James, who is the current CEO of the company’s Domestic Foods Division and former Group Chief Financial Officer, will assume the position of Group CEO on February 14 and be appointed to the board on the same date.

James joined GraceKennedy in 2005 as Vice President of Strategic Planning and Corporate Development. He quickly moved through the ranks, occupying senior roles in both the Food and Financial Services Divisions, before he was appointed Group CFO in 2012. He was also appointed to the board of directors that same year.

In April 2019, James was appointed Chief Executive Officer, GK Foods Domestic, the largest division in the group of companies, where he has championed growth and efficiency. Under his leadership, revenues for GK Foods Domestic grew by more than 60 per cent up to 2023.

In commenting on his new role, James. said, “We will continue to focus on delivering value to our customers, shareholders, and the communities we serve.”

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Corporate Movements – January 2025

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Scotia Group Jamaica Limited has announced the resignation of Perrin Gayle, Executive Vice President of Retail and Small Business Banking and Acting Head of Retail (Caribbean and Central America) effective January 24, 2025. Perrin joined the organization in 2012 and held progressively senior roles in both Trinidad & Tobago and Jamaica. During his tenure, Perrin made a very strong contribution to our team, and we wish him well. Upon Perrin’s departure, Yvett Anderson, the current Director of Customer Experience & Advocacy, will support the business as Acting Head of Retail and Small Business for Caribbean North and Central.

The Jamaica Stock Exchange (“JSE”) announces that the Managing Director, Dr. Marlene Street Forrest, will continue to serve in her current capacity until the Board of Directors has successfully completed the recruitment process for her successor.The JSE Board and Dr. Marlene Street Forrest are committed to ensuring a smooth transition to maintain the integrity, stability and continued growth of the organization. The recruitment process is well underway, and the Board remains focused on selecting a candidate who will uphold the JSE’s legacy of innovation and excellence in capital market development.

VM Investments Limited (VMIL) advises that Mrs. Nicole Adamson, who held the post of  Manager, Research, Business Planning and Investor Relations at VMIL and VM Wealth Management Limited (VMWM), resigned from the company effective December 31, 2024.

The Board of Directors of Pan Jamaica Group Limited (‘PJG’) has confirmed that Stephen Facey and Jeffrey Hall will remain as Chairman, and Vice Chairman & Chief Executive Officer (‘CEO’) of PJG, respectively. PJG previously indicated its intention to name a successor to Mr. Hall as CEO and simultaneously to appoint Mr. Hall as Executive Chairman of PJG with effect from January 2025. The PJG Board has confirmed that both the company and the persons involved are completely satisfied with the current governance and executive leadership arrangements, and accordingly, the Board has elected to defer the planned succession.

Pan Jamaica Group Limited (‘PJG’) announces that Mr. Eric Scott, Deputy Chief Financial Officer will be leaving PJG to pursue other opportunities, effective March 31, 2025.

The Board of Directors of Derrimon Trading Company Limited (DTL) is pleased to announce the appointment of Ian C. Kelly, CD, as Chief Executive Officer effective January 1, 2025. Mr. Kelly, who joined Derrimon in 2011, most recently served as Group Chief Financial Officer, Executive Director, and Divisional Director at Sampars, Corporate Planner and Finance Director. Derrick Cotterell, the outgoing CEO and Chairman, will assume the role of Executive Chairman after 26 years of visionary leadership at the helm of the company. This leadership transition aligns with Derrimon’s robust corporate governance and strategic succession planning, ensuring the separation of the roles of CEO and Chairman. Mr. Kelly’s extensive accomplishments at Derrimon include spearheading the execution of many key mergers and acquisitions, the initial IPO in 2013 and negotiating and securing funding for Derrimon’s transformative projects, including the J$4.076 billion Additional Public Offering in 2021. His commitment to innovation and operational excellence positions him as a transformative leader for Derrimon’s next chapter.

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Artificial Intelligence

CARIBIZTECH 2025 “Harnessing Generative AI: Revolutionizing Logistics, Fulfillment, Ecommerce and Transportation Across the Caribbean’s Digital Future”

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A Silicon Mountain Project – Artificial Intelligence Summit 2025, Silicon Mountain Mandeville Manchester Jamaica. October 1-3 2025.

2025 Event Theme: “Harnessing Generative AI: Revolutionizing Logistics, Fulfillment, Ecommerce and Transportation Across the Caribbean’s Digital Future.”

Event Structure: • Duration: 2 days   • Format: In-person   • Sessions: 4 thematic segments, each featuring a keynote presentation followed by two panel discussions

Key Features of CARIBIZTECH:

Expert Keynotes & Panels: Industry leaders from across the Caribbean and beyond will share insights on AI and its impact on, Logistics, Fulfillment, and Transportation, Fintech Innovations and Mobile Payments, E-commerce, Voice Commerce, and Social Commerce cybersecurity, cloud computing, and other emerging technologies.

Startup Ecosystem & Pitch Competitions: CARIBIZTECH will feature a showcase for startups to pitch their ideas, enabling entrepreneurs to connect with venture capitalists and investors.

Workshops & Training: Participants will engage in hands-on sessions aimed at upskilling in areas like blockchain, data science, and AI.

Networking & Collaboration Hubs: CARIBIZTECH will create spaces for participants to build partnerships, echoing the community-building focus of the event.

Celebration of Regional Talent: A special emphasis will be placed on spotlighting Caribbean-born innovators and fostering collaboration between local and international stakeholders.

Impact Goals:

  1. Foster a thriving tech ecosystem in Mandeville Central Jamaica.
  2. Attract global attention and investment to Silicon Mountain.
  3. Cultivate a culture of innovation and collaboration across the region.

Day 1:

Session 1: Revolutionizing Logistics, Fulfillment, and Transportation with Generative AI

• Keynote Presentation: “AI-Driven Logistics: Navigating the Future of Caribbean Transportation” Overview: Examine how Generative AI is optimizing supply chains, enhancing delivery systems, and transforming transportation networks in the Caribbean.

• Panel Discussion 1: “Smart Ports and AI: Enhancing Maritime Logistics” Overview: Explore the integration of AI in port operations to improve efficiency and security.

• Panel Discussion 2: “AI in Urban Mobility: Redefining Public Transportation” Overview: Discuss AI applications in public transit systems to enhance commuter experiences.

Session 2: The Evolution of Commerce: E-commerce, Voice Commerce, and Social Commerce in the Age of AI

• Keynote Presentation: “Voice-Activated Shopping: The Next Frontier in Caribbean Retail” Overview: Delve into how AI-powered voice commerce is reshaping consumer interactions and purchasing behaviours.

• Panel Discussion 1: “Social Commerce Strategies: Leveraging AI for Business Growth” Overview: Discuss how businesses can utilize AI to enhance social media-driven sales.

 Panel Discussion 2: “AI Personalization in E-commerce: Enhancing Customer Experience” Overview: Examine AI’s role in creating personalized shopping experiences to boost customer satisfaction and loyalty.

Day 2:

Session 3: Fintech Innovations: Redefining Mobile Payments with Generative AI

• Keynote Presentation: “AI-Powered Fintech: Revolutionizing Mobile Payments in the Caribbean” Overview: Explore how Generative AI is enhancing security, efficiency, and accessibility in mobile payment solutions.

 Panel Discussion 1: “Blockchain and AI: Securing the Future of Digital Transactions” Overview: Discuss the convergence of AI and blockchain technologies in creating secure payment ecosystems.

• Panel Discussion 2: “Financial Inclusion through AI: Expanding Access to Banking Services” Overview: Examine how AI-driven mobile payment solutions are promoting financial inclusion in underserved communities.

Session 4: Generative AI: Shaping the Future of Technology and Business

• Keynote Presentation: “The Creative Machine: Unleashing the Potential of Generative AI” Overview: Provide an in-depth understanding of Generative AI and its broad applications across various industries.

 Panel Discussion 1: “Ethical Considerations in AI: Balancing Innovation and Responsibility” Overview: Discuss the ethical implications of AI development and deployment, emphasizing responsible innovation.

 Panel Discussion 2: “AI and the Future Workforce: Preparing for Emerging Opportunities” Overview: Explore how AI is transforming job markets and the skills required for future employment.

Day 3: Additional Features to Enhance Appeal (Optional)

Caribiztech 2025 aims to provide a comprehensive and engaging experience that addresses the latest trends and opportunities in Generative AI, tailored to the Caribbean context.

Startup Showcase: An Exhibition area where emerging tech startups can present their AI-driven solutions, fostering networking and investment opportunities.   Workshops and Masterclasses: Interactive sessions providing hands-on experience with AI tools and technologies, tailored for different expertise levels.  Networking Events: Organized meetups, including a welcome reception and closing gala, to facilitate connections among attendees.

Diversity and Inclusion Panels: Discussions focused on promoting inclusivity within the tech industry, ensuring diverse perspectives in AI development.

Knights$Angels Investor Pitch Sessions:

Opportunities for entrepreneurs to pitch their AI-based business ideas to potential investors, encouraging funding and collaboration.   “Knights$Angels” is an exciting, high-stakes 60-minute made-for-TV program that brings the world of investment to life by providing exclusive insight into the real-world decision-making processes of investors and how entrepreneurs pitch their ideas.   The show aims to transform how investment is perceived in the Caribbean, focusing on providing a clear understanding of how deals are made and what it truly takes to secure investment.   The programme will specifically focus on Technology and Generative Artificial Intelligence (AI), covering emerging areas like Voice Commerce, Transportation and Logistics, and related tech trends that are shaping the future. Entrepreneurs with innovative ideas in these fields will have the unique opportunity to pitch to investors who are ready to commit capital to fuel the growth of these high-potential ventures.

01 Presentation Opportunities :

For more information on presentation opportunies please email thesiliconmountainproject@gmail.com with the reference “Presentations”  or call  (876) 630 2216 (O) (876) 542 3719 (M) siliconmountainproject.com

02 Sponsorship Opportunities

For more information on Sponsorship Opportunies please email thesiliconmountainproject@gmail.com with the reference “Sponsorship”  or call  (876) 630 2216 (O) (876) 542 3719 (M) siliconmountainproject.com

03 Exhibition Opportunities

For more information on Exhibition Opportunies please email thesiliconmountainproject@gmail.com with the reference “Exhibitions” or call  (876) 630 2216 (O) (876) 542 3719 (M) siliconmountainproject.com

 

 Official Event Organisers : 360 Signature Events is an AMK Communications Limited Company. Operating from “Silicon Mountain – The Business Technology and Innovation Hub of the Caribbean” Mandeville Manchester Jamaica. 360 Signature Events, specializes in organizing Exhibitions, Conventions, Conferences, Seminars, Sporting and Hospitality Events, Road Shows, Brand Promotions, Product Launches, Incentive Programs, and other Special Events. Let us help you make your next event extraordinary. To learn more, check the following link: www.amkcom.com, 360signatureevents@gmail.com

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Businessuite News24

The International Merchandise Trade Bulletin January to August 2024 – Jamaica

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Jamaica’s total spending on imports for the period January to August 2024, were valued at US$4,949.2 million, while earnings from total exports were
valued at US$1,195.9 million as released today by the Statistical Institute of Jamaica (STATIN).

The value of imports was 2.6 per cent lower than the US$5,079.5 million spent for the January to August 2023 period. This decline was largely attributable to lower imports of Raw Materials/Intermediate Goods and Fuels and Lubricant, which fell by 12.7 per cent and 1.9 per cent, respectively.

Revenue from total exports declined by 13.8 per cent over the review period when compared to the US$1,387.3 million earned for January to August 2023. This was due primarily to a 60.5 per cent fall in the value of re-exports. However, earnings from domestic exports for the 2024 review period increased by 1.1 per cent to US$1,062.9 million, due to an 8.7 per cent rise in the value of exports from the Mining and Quarrying industry.

MAIN TRADING PARTNERS
The five main trading import partners for the period January to August 2024 were the United States of America (USA), China, Brazil, Japan and Colombia. Expenditure on imports of goods from these countries fell by 3.8 per cent to US$2,995.8 million when compared to US$3,115.0 million recorded in the same period of 2023. This decrease was largely due to a 5.9 per cent fall in imports of “Mineral Fuels”.

The top five destinations for Jamaica’s exports were the USA, the Russia Federation, Iceland, the Netherlands and Canada. The value of total exports to these countries increased by 10.3per cent to US$843.4 million due mainly to a 49.5 per cent increase in the value of exports of “Crude Materials”.

The International Merchandise Trade Bulletin outlines additional information on Jamaica’s international trade activities. The August 2024 International Merchandise Trade Bulletin is available on the Statistical Institute of Jamaica’s website www.statinja.gov.jm or from the Information Section of the Institute at (876)-630-1626. Visit the Institute’s Facebook and Instagram pages @STATINJA for the August 2024 IMT infographics.

About Us: The Statistical Institute of Jamaica is the National Statistics Office and the leading provider of official statistics on the country’s economic, social, demographic, and environmental conditions. The Institute periodically releases monthly, quarterly, and annual products such as Gross Domestic Product (GDP), inflation rate, international merchandise trade, social and population statistics. STATIN is dedicated to delivering accurate, comprehensive, and timely data that supports informed decision-making and aligns with the Institute’s mission.

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Producer Price Index – The Statistical Institute of Jamaica

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Output prices for producers in the Mining and Quarrying industry increased by 0.2 per cent for November 2024, while the Manufacturing industry remained relatively unchanged as released today by the Statistical Institute of Jamaica (STATIN).

The movement in the Mining and Quarrying industry was attributed to a similar 0.2 per cent increase in the index for the major group ‘Bauxite Mining & Alumina Processing’.

For the Manufacturing industry, there was a decline of 2.2 per cent in the index for the major group ‘Refined Petroleum Products’ driven by lower international petroleum prices, while there was a 0.5 per cent increase in the index for the heaviest weighted major group, ‘Food, Beverages & Tobacco’.

For the period November 2023 – November 2024, the point-to-point index for the Mining & Quarrying industry increased by 8.8 per cent.

This was mainly due to an increase of 9.0 per cent in the index for the major group ‘Bauxite Mining & Alumina Processing’.

The point-to-point index for the Manufacturing industry increased by 0.3 per cent, contributing to this was a 3.3 per cent increase in the index for the major group ‘Food, Beverages & Tobacco’.

However, the industry’s overall increase was tempered by a 10.7 per cent decline in the index for the major group ‘Refined Petroleum Products’.

The November 2024 Producer Price Index Bulletin provides additional information on the movement of producers’ prices and is available on STATIN’s website www.statinja.gov.jm or from the Information Section of STATIN at (876) 630-1619.

Visit the Institute’s Facebook and Instagram pages @STATINJA for the November 2024 PPI infographic.

The average exchange rate for the previous month was used in calculating the PPI for the current period.

The assumption is that producers would not have purchased their raw materials in the current month.

About Us: The Statistical Institute of Jamaica is the National Statistics Office and the leading provider of official statistics on the country’s economic, social, demographic, and environmental conditions. The Institute periodically releases monthly, quarterly, and annual products such as Gross Domestic Product (GDP), inflation rate, international merchandise trade, social and population statistics. STATIN is dedicated to delivering accurate, comprehensive, and timely data that supports informed decision-making and aligns with the Institute’s mission.

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