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Jamaica Economic Review 2018-2019

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Photo Caption: Visual Representation Of The Planned Redevelopment Of Downtown Kingston By The Urban Development Corporation

Overview

Jamaica’s economy grew by 2.4% in 2018. This was led by increased tourism and construction activity. Inflation decreased as food prices fell, while unemployment was lower than in the previous year. An accommodative monetary stance contributed to credit growth, which coincided with improvements in doing business conditions and an increase in consumer confidence.

Fiscal performance was strong; and debt as a percentage of gross domestic product (GDP) declined. The external trade deficit worsened; but the level of foreign exchange reserves was still comfortably above the required threshold.

The medium-term outlook remains positive, underpinned by a combination of higher investment and productivity growth supported by ongoing reforms. However, key downside risks, including macroeconomic and weather related shocks, policy reversal of the structural reforms, and high crime rates can derail growth prospects.

Key Developments in 2018

Real GDP is estimated to have expanded by 1.9% in the year to September 2018. The increased activity reflected positive growth in tourism, construction and mining. The increase in tourism was evident from a higher number of stopover visitor arrivals (2.21 million) (mn) over the period January to November 2018, up 5.3%, associated with an increase in airlift to the island. Construction performance was largely driven by a rise in public capital. Whereas cruise passengers numbered 1.62 mn (5.6% decline from 2017).

Headline inflation decreased to 2.4% in the year to December 2018, compared with 5.2% the previous twelve months. This outturn was on account of a decline in prices for agricultural products (in the food sub index), associated with an increase in supplies as Jamaica recovered from adverse weather conditions in the second half of 2017. This decline was partly offset by higher energy costs associated with the lagged impact of increases in oil prices.

Unemployment fell once again. Latest available data from the Statistical Institute of Jamaica (STATIN) show that the unemployment rate dropped to 8.7% in October 2018, 1.8 percentage points below the rate at October 2017.

In July, the rate had fallen to an all-time low of 8.4%. The construction and wholesale and retail sectors accounted for the largest increases in employment. Construction provided increased youth employment, as did business process outsourcing. Increased labour market participation was a result of increased, with improvements in the doing business environment and macroeconomic stability.

Central Government operations recorded a surplus for the first six months of the fiscal year (April-September 2018). This improved fiscal outcome is linked to a primary surplus of $73.8 billion (bn) or 3.6 % of GDP, above the 3% outturn for the same period in 2017.

The primary surplus reflected the better-than-expected performance of international trade taxes, production and consumption taxes, and the containment of discretionary recurrent expenditure. Revenues from taxes on income and profits were marginally lower than expected.

Public debt for Fiscal Year (FY) 2018/19 is projected to drop to 97.4%, compared with the 104.1% in FY 2017/18, thus falling below 100% of GDP for the first time since FY 2000/01. Based on the current trajectory, public debt is on track to reach 60% of GDP by FY 2025/26.

Noting the improvements in the macroeconomic and fiscal indicators, the rating agencies upgraded their credit ratings and outlooks. Fitch’s reported a B+ rating with a positive outlook (January 2019);

Standard & Poor’s upgraded its rating to B with a positive outlook (September 2018); and Moody’s assigned a rating of B3 with positive outlook (July 2018).

Accommodative monetary conditions as well as increased competition in the market for loanable funds continued to support growth in overall financing. Private sector credit grew by 16.2% in the year to the end of September 2018, compared with an expansion of 11.5% in the previous year.

The growth in private sector credit reflected increased loans and advances to both businesses (utilities, tourism and manufacturing) and households (mortgage loans and instalment credit).

Consistent with the relatively favourable macroeconomic environment, the commercial banks’ asset quality and profitability improved.

The current account deficit widened, due in part to an increase in imports. The merchandise trade deficit grew by 7.6% to US$4.1 bn in the first 11 months of 2018, on account of increased imports of food, fuels, manufactured goods, machinery and transport equipment.

However, the growth in tourism receipts, associated with increased stay-over visitors and remittance inflows, partially offset the current account deficit.

This deficit was partly financed by private investment inflows. Inward FDI was estimated at US$578.8 mn for the period January to September 2018. This was supported by a drawdown of foreign reserves, which still comfortably exceeded the international benchmark of three months of imports.

Reserves fell to an estimated 4.9 months (compared with 5.7 months in December 2017). Nevertheless, the import cover was marginally higher than the December 2014 level of 4.6 months.

Outlook

The medium-term outlook is positive, with 1.7% growth projected for FY 2018/19.

Tourism, manufacturing, agriculture, and construction are the sectors most likely to drive growth in the short term. The productivity-enhancing reforms and public investments that have been undertaken during the implementation of GOJ’s reform programme are expected to contribute to increased domestic demand.

At the same time, enhancements in agricultural productivity, especially through priority investments in infrastructure (including irrigation), will generate direct and indirect increases in incomes and a reduction in poverty.

However, key downside risks, such as a slowdown in global growth, macroeconomic and/or weather-related shocks, policy reversal of the structural reforms, and high crime, could derail growth prospects.

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Business Insights

Subscription vs. Pay-Per-Use: Choosing the Right Revenue Model for Caribbean Business Growth

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In today’s dynamic business landscape, companies continually seek effective revenue models to ensure sustainability and profitability. Two prevalent models are the subscription-based model, employed by giants like Netflix and Amazon Prime, and the pay-per-use (or transactional) model. This article delves into the background, benefits, and disadvantages of each model, identifies the types of businesses best suited for them, and explores how Jamaican and Caribbean companies can leverage these models to enhance revenue and profitability.

Background of Revenue Models

Subscription-Based Model: This model involves customers paying a recurring fee—monthly, annually, or at other regular intervals—to access a product or service. Historically, this approach was common in industries like publishing (magazines and newspapers) and has now expanded to digital services, software, and entertainment platforms.

Pay-Per-Use Model: In this model, customers pay based on their actual usage of a product or service. This approach is prevalent in utilities, telecommunications, and emerging digital services where usage can vary significantly among customers.

Benefits and Disadvantages

Subscription-Based Model:

Benefits:

Predictable Revenue: Businesses enjoy a steady and predictable income stream, facilitating better financial planning and resource allocation.

Customer Retention: Regular interactions foster stronger customer relationships and loyalty.

Scalability: Easier to introduce new features or services to existing subscribers, enhancing value over time.

Disadvantages:

Churn Risk: Customers may cancel subscriptions if they perceive insufficient value, leading to revenue loss.

Continuous Value Delivery: Requires ongoing investment in content or service improvements to maintain customer interest.

Pay-Per-Use Model:

Benefits:

Flexibility: Attracts cost-conscious customers who prefer paying only for what they use.

Lower Entry Barrier: Customers can access services without committing to recurring payments, which can be appealing for infrequent users.

Disadvantages:

Revenue Variability: Income can fluctuate based on customer usage patterns, making financial forecasting challenging.

Complex Billing Systems: Requires robust systems to track usage accurately and bill customers accordingly.

Business Suitability

Subscription-Based Model: Ideal for businesses offering services or products with ongoing value propositions. Examples include streaming services (e.g., Netflix), software-as-a-service (SaaS) platforms, and membership-based organizations.

Pay-Per-Use Model: Suited for services where usage varies among customers, such as utilities, cloud computing services, and on-demand content platforms.

Maximizing Revenue in Jamaican and Caribbean Companies

For businesses in Jamaica and the broader Caribbean, adopting these models can open new revenue streams and enhance profitability:

Digital and Streaming Services: With the global rise of digital consumption, local content creators and media houses can adopt subscription models to offer exclusive Caribbean-focused content, catering to both regional and international audiences.

Tourism and Hospitality: Hotels and resorts can introduce subscription packages for frequent travelers, offering benefits like discounted rates, priority bookings, and exclusive experiences.

Utilities and Telecommunications: Implementing pay-per-use models for services like electricity, water, and mobile data can provide customers with flexibility, potentially increasing usage and revenue.

Agriculture and Produce Delivery: Farmers can offer subscription boxes delivering fresh produce to customers regularly, ensuring steady income and promoting healthy eating habits.

Fitness and Wellness: Gyms and wellness centers can provide subscription-based access to virtual classes, personalized training sessions, and wellness resources, expanding their reach beyond physical locations.

Implementation Considerations

Market Research: Understand the target audience’s preferences and willingness to adopt new payment models.

Infrastructure Investment: Develop reliable billing systems and digital platforms to manage subscriptions or track usage effectively.

Regulatory Compliance: Ensure adherence to local laws and regulations, especially concerning digital transactions and data protection.

Customer Education: Inform customers about the benefits and functionalities of the chosen model to encourage adoption.

Market Saturation – A Key Challenge Of The Subscription Revenue Model

This perspective highlights a key challenge of the subscription revenue model—that of market saturation. Since subscription-based businesses rely on a recurring customer base, their revenue growth is often tied to acquiring new subscribers or increasing prices for existing ones. When the market becomes saturated (i.e., most of the potential customers who would subscribe have already done so), companies are forced to find alternative ways to boost revenue, such as:

Raising Subscription Prices – As seen with Netflix and Amazon Prime, companies periodically increase fees to maintain revenue growth, but this risks customer churn if price hikes outpace perceived value.

Introducing Tiered Pricing – Companies may create premium subscription tiers with additional benefits to encourage higher spending.

Expanding Services or Content – Adding new features, services, or exclusive content can justify price increases and retain subscribers.

On the other hand, the pay-as-you-go (PAYG) model offers more scalability and revenue flexibility because revenue is directly tied to usage volume rather than a fixed subscriber base. Businesses can grow revenue in several ways:

Encouraging More Frequent Use – Companies can create incentives for customers to use the service more often, such as dynamic pricing or special promotions.

Expanding Offerings – Businesses can introduce new features or services that increase usage without necessarily increasing prices.

Tapping into New Customer Segments – Since PAYG has lower entry barriers, it can attract a wider audience, including occasional users who wouldn’t commit to a subscription.

Impact on Business Strategy

Subscription models benefit from stable, predictable revenue but face growth limitations once they hit market saturation. Companies must innovate to retain users or find new markets.

PAYG models provide more room for expansion and revenue diversification but require continuous customer engagement strategies to drive repeat purchases.

For Jamaican and Caribbean businesses, a hybrid approach—offering both subscription and PAYG options—could provide the best of both worlds, allowing companies to maximize revenue potential while maintaining customer flexibility.

By thoughtfully selecting and implementing the appropriate revenue model, Jamaican and Caribbean businesses can enhance their competitiveness, cater to evolving customer needs, and achieve sustainable growth in the modern economy.

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GraceKennedy Limited (GK) Announces Additional Leadership Changes

These leadership changes align with the Company’s commitment to fostering a performance-driven culture while promoting innovation and consumer centricity.

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GraceKennedy Limited (GK) has announced key leadership changes set to take effect in 2025 as part of the Company’s succession plan.

Effective February 14, 2025, Andrea Coy will assume the role of CEO of GraceKennedy Foods, a move which will see the integration of the domestic and international segments of GK’s food division under a single leadership structure.

Since joining GraceKennedy in 2005 as Hi-Lo’s Financial Controller, Coy has held several key leadership roles within GK, including General Manager of Hi-Lo Food Stores and World Brands Services, CEO of Hardware & Lumber, Senior General Manager of the GK Foods Global Category Management Unit, and CEO of GK Foods Domestic. She has led GK’s international food operations since 2018 and is a member of the GK Executive Committee. Under her leadership, both GK’s domestic and international food businesses recorded significant growth in revenues and profitability. Coy holds degrees in Accounting from the University of the West Indies and is a member of the Institute of Chartered Accountants of Jamaica. She specializes in Turnaround Management and has completed advanced studies in the field at Harvard Business School. She serves on the Board of the Bank of Jamaica.

Later this year, following a distinguished 25-year career at GK, Grace Burnett will retire as CEO of the GraceKennedy Financial Group (GKFG), effective August 14, 2025. Upon her retirement, Steven Whittingham, the current Deputy CEO of GKFG, will step into the role of CEO, ensuring a seamless transition in leadership.

Grace Burnett

Burnett joined GK in 2000 and has held several key leadership roles within the Group. She previously served as Managing Director of GK General Insurance and Allied Insurance Brokers, where she led strategic operations for GK’s insurance business. From 2014 to 2019, she was the CEO of GK’s Insurance Segment, driving growth and innovation in the sector. An attorney-at-law, she has been the CEO of GKFG since 2016 and holds the position of the President & CEO of GraceKennedy Money Services. She is also a member of the GK Executive Committee. Well-known for her expertise in customer service, operations, and talent development, Burnett has earned accolades both within GK and externally. Her outstanding contributions to the insurance industry and exemplary leadership were formally recognised in 2024 when she received the prestigious Insurance Association of Jamaica Leadership Excellence Award.

Steven Whittingham

Whittingham joined GK in 2013 and has been Deputy CEO of GKFG since 2022, overseeing the Group’s Insurance Segment, merchant banking, and investment portfolios. He is a member of the GK Executive Committee and leads GK’s digital transformation. He has held various leadership roles within GK, including Chief Investment Officer of GraceKennedy Limited, Chief Operating Officer of GKFG, President of First Global Financial Services and Managing Director of GK Capital Management. During his tenure he has been instrumental in driving GK’s expansion through strategic mergers, acquisitions, and greenfield startups, consistently delivering impressive growth across portfolios. Whittingham holds dual degrees in Systems Engineering and Economics from the University of Pennsylvania and an MBA from Harvard Business School. In 2024 he was appointed Chairman of the Jamaica Stock Exchange, and he has served on several public and private sector boards.

These announcements come as GK prepares for another major leadership transition later this week. Last month, the Company confirmed that Group CEO, the Honourable Don Wehby, CD, OJ, will retire on February 14, 2025, stepping down from the Board of Directors after a distinguished tenure.

He will be succeeded by Frank James, current CEO of GK Foods Domestic and former Group CFO. GraceKennedy remains steadfast in its commitment to executing its strategy and ensuring excellence across all its operations.

These leadership changes align with the Company’s commitment to fostering a performance-driven culture while promoting innovation and consumer centricity. As the GK team strives to achieve its vision of becoming the number one Caribbean brand in the world, these appointments will provide continuity and strategically position GraceKennedy for sustained growth and innovation in the years ahead.

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Businessuite Top 100 Caribbean Companies and CEO – 2024 Digital Edition

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Corporate Movements – February 2025

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Derrimon Trading Company advises that Mr. Winston Thomas has resigned from the Board of Directors of Derrimon Trading effective January 31, 2025. We thank Mr. Thomas for his contribution to the Board and wish him every success in his future endeavours.

Sagicor Group Jamaica Limited (SJ) wishes to advise that Mr. Gilbert Palter resigned as a Director of SJ and its subsidiary, Sagicor Life Jamaica Limited (SLJ) effective January 31, 2025. SJ is pleased to announce that the SJ and SLJ Boards have approved the appointment of Ms. Cathleen McLaughlin as a Director of these companies effective February 1, 2025, subject to regulatory approval. Ms. McLaughlin holds a Bachelor of Arts degree from the University of Pennsylvania as well as a Juris Doctor degree from the University of Pennsylvania Law School and has over three (3) decades of experience working in the area of Corporate Finance, including experience in capital markets in the Caribbean and Latin America.

Supreme Ventures Limited (SVL) is pleased to announce the appointment of Mr. Stefan Miller, as the acting CEO of Supreme Ventures Gaming Limited effective February 1, 2025.

Pan Jamaica Group Limited (‘PJG’) announces that Mr. Eric Scott, Deputy Chief Financial Officer will be leaving PJG to pursue other opportunities, effective March 31, 2025. PJG thanks Mr. Scott for his contribution to the Group and wishes him every success in his future endeavours.

 

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Industry Minister Wants More MSMEs Listed on Junior Market of Stock Exchange

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Minister of Industry, Investment and Commerce, Senator the Hon. Aubyn Hill, says he wants to see more micro, small and medium-sized enterprises (MSMEs) listed on the Junior Market of the Jamaica Stock Exchange this year.

He also urged MSMEs to take advantage of the recent amendment of the Income Tax Act, which allows companies to raise up to $750 million during an initial public offering, an increase of $250 million.

Senator Hill, who was addressing Wednesday’s (January 15) post-Cabinet press briefing at Jamaica House, reasoned that the aim is to build companies that can compete not just in Jamaica but regionally and internationally.

“Two of our biggest companies have big companies in the United States – Grace and Jamaica Broilers Group. More than 50 per cent of Jamaica Broilers Group’s income comes not from Jamaica but from the United States, where they own a lot of companies,” he said.

Senator Hill shared that trade data show that between 1960 and 2021, negative trade balances were recorded in 60 of the 61 years.

A positive trade balance was only recorded in 1966.

“Unless we go and find new markets for our products and services and new markets for investments to come into Jamaica, we’re not going to be the rich country that we have to be,” he said.

“I want the private sector in Jamaica to realise that there are tremendous opportunities, as Jamaica is not the same country it was 10 years ago. Lots of people are making money the right way.

We want more and more Jamaicans to invest and we have 20 agencies in my ministry alone to work with you,” Senator Hill appealed.

For her part, Minister of Finance and the Public Service, Hon. Fayval Williams, said the Government is committed to facilitating further growth of the MSME sector.

“We believe that this will positively impact the MSME sector, as it will broaden the scope for more MSMEs to benefit from the suite of incentives afforded. Further, the increase will provide room for these companies to raise capital and improve productivity. This policy is in recognition of the pivotal role that MSMEs play in driving economic growth while promoting and encouraging local entrepreneurship,” Mrs. Williams said.

The 48 companies currently listed on the Junior Market benefit from a range of tax incentives that include conditional relief from income tax payments, exemption from transfer tax and stamp duty on transfer of shares.

The Junior Market had a market capitalisation of $148.5 billion as at the end of December 2024, having started with $785 million in 2009.

By: Judana Murphy,JIS

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