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Global Expectations: Predicting Economic Trends in an uncertain Global Environment – implications for Jamaican Companies.
Integration and globalization have made it impossible for countries to avoid the effects of changes in the international environment. An example of this is the recent and commonly referred to 2007-2008 financial crisis which affected majority and possibly all the world. The breakdown within the global environment within the two years has encouraged countries and particularly businesses to take key note of the economic trend within the uncertain global environment.
International markets fluctuate frequently and Jamaica, being a developing economy, is at risk of being greatly affected by any severe negative shock in the global environment. Careful monitoring of global activities can help the country alleviate the impact of negative externalities and reap the benefits from positive externalities.
There are a few concerns that is taking place on the international scene which has been of concern to developing nations such as ours. Over the past two years events such as Brexit, decisions made by the Trump Administration on international relations, Venezuela’s crisis and the never-ending conflicts in the middle east have increased concerns globally.
On 23 June 2016, The British government held a referendum on the issue of Brexit of which the majority voted to leave the European Union.
The UK’s sudden decision to leave the EU came as a shock to many. The United States as well as other countries were concerned about the possible shock waves that may stem from the exit. Due to the linkages of banks across the world, there were concerns about the expected instability it may have caused in the market. Some critics said that this loss could push Britain into a recession. The initial effect was a loss of about 9 percent in the value of the British pound one week following the vote. It is expected that Britain could experience more fallout as time progresses. The area of most concern is in trade and trade policies. The EU is UK’s biggest trade partner, however, with their decision to leave, it is expected that new policies will be drafted. Caribbean nations, such as Jamaica, are eagerly watching the international scene to see any further impact that Brexit will have as a nation and on us as a region.
When the United States elected the Donald Trump administration it initially resulted in uncertainty, which caused leaders worldwide to think about the possible global consequences of his policies based on his views expressed during his election campaign.
In the Caribbean, many have wondered how his decision on immigration and globalization would impact the countries. The US is the largest trading partner in the Caribbean and remittance contributes significantly to the foreign currencies in the region, hence any decision relating to trade policies and migration will have some amount of impact regionally. On January 25, Donald Trump signed an executive order that reinstates the Secure Communities Programme to target undocumented immigrants. The order also directs the State Department to withhold visas or take other measures to ensure that countries take back their undocumented immigrants. What this means is that illegal Caribbean migrants will be sent back to their homeland, which could possibly lead to a large amount of deportees, which many countries cannot at this time facilitate. The Trump administration has also proposed a repatriation plan that is expected to bring in approximately US$2.6 trillion. US corporation taxes are expected to be lowered, which may have a significant impact on US investments in other countries.
It goes without saying that oil is an essential element in an economy. Hence the price of oil will affect significantly utility, services and commodity prices. The recent Venezuelan crisis and the continuing war in the Middle East has raised concern about their impact on exports. Of the top ten world oil exporters two are middle eastern countries which are, Saudi Arabia at number one and Iraq at number three while Venezuela is at number nine.
Above is graph reflecting the movements of the US$ per barrel prices of Dated Brent and the West Texas Intermediate over the period January 2016 to June 2017. There was a noticeable increase moving from November 2016 to December 2016 and prices have generally have been relatively higher that the prices in the early months of 2016. An upward movement like this could cause oil prices to surge resulting. One recommendation is to continue with the oil hedge as oil prices can increase at any time. BM
Guardsman Metaverse, in collaboration with Jamaican artificial intelligence company Crimsontide AI, is revolutionizing security across Jamaica with cutting-edge, customizable solutions. This partnership brings together Guardsman’s expertise in virtual security and Crimsontide’s advanced AI technology, delivering a suite of intelligent security offerings tailored to meet the unique needs of Jamaican businesses and institutions.
Through this strategic collaboration, Guardsman Metaverse is positioned at the forefront of the country’s security landscape, offering systems that leverage both immersive digital technology and sophisticated artificial intelligence.
The partnership underscores the importance of local innovation in addressing the security challenges faced by Jamaica today, providing clients with tailor-made solutions that ensure effective protection.
Guardsman Metaverse is committed to offering security solutions that go beyond traditional models, emphasizing customization and flexibility to meet the specific requirements of each client. From large commercial operations to smaller enterprises, the platform delivers a personalized approach that ensures maximum efficiency and peace of mind.
This flexibility is what sets Guardsman Metaverse apart—adapting to each environment’s unique security demands and offering a more responsive, intelligent way to safeguard people and assets.
With AI-driven features that allow for real-time monitoring and proactive threat detection, Guardsman Metaverse empowers businesses and institutions to stay ahead of potential security breaches. Each system can be fully customized to fit the environment it protects, delivering advanced functionality across a wide range of settings.
Advanced Features for Comprehensive Protection
- Facial Recognition: Guardsman Metaverse enhances access control through secure, real-time identification of authorized personnel, ensuring that only those with clearance can enter critical areas.
- License Plate Detection: For commercial properties, this feature allows for real-time monitoring of vehicle activity, helping to identify unauthorized or suspicious vehicles and notify security personnel immediately.
- Personnel Counting and Crowd Management: Especially important for businesses, this feature tracks occupancy and manages crowd flow, helping to ensure safety, meet regulatory requirements, and optimize operational efficiency.
- Firearm Detection: Using AI-powered analysis, Guardsman Metaverse detects the presence of firearms, providing instant alerts to security teams to ensure a rapid and effective response to any threat.
- Customizable Behavioural AI: Tailored to each client’s specific needs, Guardsman Metaverse’s behavioural AI can be trained to detect and respond to specific actions or patterns that are unique to the environment it monitors.
- Infrared Drone Surveillance: Equipped with infrared technology, Guardsman Metaverse drones provide round-the-clock aerial surveillance, ideal for large properties, high-security areas, and search-and-rescue missions, offering comprehensive monitoring that goes beyond traditional methods.
These advanced security features are fully customizable, ensuring that businesses receive a solution designed specifically for their needs. Whether it’s safeguarding large commercial complexes, healthcare facilities or educational institutions, Guardsman Metaverse offers tailored protection that provides complete peace of mind.
The partnership with Crimsontide AI, a rapidly emerging Jamaican company specializing in state-of-the-art patent-pending artificial intelligence software, ensures that Guardsman Metaverse’s solutions are not only technologically advanced but also locally relevant.
Crimsontide AI Limited is at the forefront of technological innovation, and its expertise allows the system to be fine-tuned to the specific security challenges that businesses in Jamaica face.
Through this collaboration, a diverse offering of services is available to various customers and industries, including theft detection at banks, supermarkets, and retail stores, intruder detection and breach prevention at hotels and resorts, as well as risk mitigation and compliance solutions.
Crimsontide’s AI technology also enables businesses to recognize trends in data, detect outliers, and summarize data sets, all aimed at informing better business decisions.
This partnership ensures that Jamaicans are at the forefront of solving their own security issues, with solutions designed by Jamaicans, for Jamaicans. At Crimsontide AI, the commitment to rebuilding a safer Jamaica is at the heart of every innovation, working toward a future where local technology empowers local security.
However, beyond responding to security threats as they happen, Guardsman Metaverse is designed to predict and prevent potential issues before they escalate. By leveraging AI to analyse behaviours and patterns, the system can foresee risks, giving clients the ability to take proactive steps. This predictive approach ensures that businesses and homeowners are always ahead of security challenges, helping to mitigate risks before they become serious threats.
With Guardsman Metaverse, clients are empowered to protect their environments not just reactively but pre-emptively. This next-level security capability, combined with fully customizable features, ensures a comprehensive approach that adapts to the ever-evolving nature of security threats in today’s society.
Studies consistently show that most strategic plans fall short.
The reasons are varied, but a common mistake stands out: teams often assume they understand “strategic” planning, only to end up misguided, compromising their organizations’ success. Often, what they call a “strategic plan” lacks real strategic thought.
How Missteps Occur
If you’ve ever reviewed a company’s strategic plan, you’ve likely seen a list of ambitious goals. They may be grouped in catchy ways, but as you read through, doubts surface. Why?
You sense the organization may lack the resources or focus to achieve all these objectives simultaneously. The longer the list, the more you suspect it may be abandoned when daily issues arise, with lofty goals slipping out of view.
Redefining “Strategic”
One way to prevent this common pitfall is to rethink how we use the term “strategic.” Today, the label “strategic” is often used casually to signal importance, so much so that it’s lost its impact, and audiences tune it out.
This isn’t just a communication issue. When teams invest time in a strategic retreat, they expect the final plan to be truly strategic, yet often that’s not the case.
Typical brainstorming sessions encourage a mix of ideas and positive intentions without much structure. The result is often an extensive report of hopeful outcomes, which can look similar to other plans within the industry—ultimately, another reason for failure.
Enter the Strategy Triad
Peter Compo’s book *The Emergent Strategy* introduces a helpful redefinition of “strategic” by proposing a triad approach:
1. Aspiration: A meaningful, challenging goal that requires effort and won’t happen automatically.
2. Bottleneck: The main obstacle preventing the organization from achieving its aspiration(s).
3. Guiding Principle: A decision-making rule to help navigate actions that address the bottleneck.
Consider a store aiming to increase profits. If the biggest bottleneck is low brand recognition, the guiding principle could be to improve brand awareness through multiple channels—online, in-store, and through partnerships.
Applying the Strategy Triad
At a recent strategic planning retreat, a leadership team was challenged to apply the triad. Initially, it was difficult; identifying bottlenecks from new perspectives required collaboration and creativity, especially without cross-functional data, which led them to rely on firsthand experiences. Yet, they successfully defined bottlenecks and guiding principles that empowered employees to align their daily choices with the strategic plan. This alignment is what leaders want but is often rare.
Why Alignment is Rare
Leadership teams often avoid the challenging, healthy conflict required to build a robust strategy triad. They may take the easier path, creating lists of goals rather than diving into critical strategic planning. Alternatively, when discussions become too heated, leaders may intervene prematurely, cutting off debate and limiting essential buy-in.
To achieve meaningful alignment, it’s important to work through differing viewpoints until agreement is reached. Though challenging, this process builds the intellectual and emotional commitment needed for successful execution. By persevering through difficult conversations, leaders can significantly improve their strategic plans’ success and longevity.
Found this topic interesting? You may want to delve into my long-form content in my JumpLeap Strategic Planning Newsletter/Podcast.
Francis Wade
JumpLeap NewsletterPodcast
Framework Consulting
http://blog.fwconsulting.com : http://fwconsulting.com
Imagine you’ve joined a board, only to discover it’s deeply mediocre. This is your third meeting, and it’s becoming clear that the issues you sensed in the first two weren’t incidental—they’re ongoing. How do you address this underperformance?
Luckily, you aren’t the only one who’s noticed. Some members recognize that long-standing issues have held the board back for years, and while they’ve tried initiating change, nothing has stuck. These are complex, systemic challenges that won’t be resolved by casual discussions, pep talks, or a thoughtful email. Swift, strategic action is needed. But how?
I recently encountered insights from consultant A. Cecile Watson that shed light on why boards need their own strategic approach. Her perspective inspires these key reasons for why your board must implement a self-care plan.
Why Boards Should Prioritize Self-Examination
Boards are often envisioned as serving the organization’s needs. If all members align with this vision, things should function smoothly. Small differences can be ironed out, much like in the “Form-Storm-Norm-Perform” teamwork model, which illustrates the stages groups move through to achieve high performance.
However, boards today face a high-pressure environment, dealing with complex VUCA (Volatile, Uncertain, Complex, and Ambiguous) issues from the outset. While they might receive briefings, individual and group development often gets overlooked in the rush to deliver.
This traditional expectation—that boards serve swiftly, even if under-informed—faces scrutiny in Watson’s latest article. She argues that boards must practice self-reflection and strategy if they’re to excel. Smart people on a board don’t guarantee a high group IQ or EQ; in fact, group performance can suffer if proactive measures aren’t in place.
What does your board need? A new level of self-care. Watson suggests that boards operate as a kind of strategic unit, managing their performance preemptively. Failing to do so only perpetuates mediocrity.
The Case for Board Self-Strategy
Typically, boards focus on “strategic planning” for their organization’s future. Watson’s approach takes this one step further: boards must also strategize for themselves. As a unit, they need the space to address their own evolution.
This doesn’t mean ignoring corporate planning. In fact, I’ve previously recommended that board members actively engage in their organization’s strategic retreats, where they contribute to shaping long-term goals.
Yet, once these retreats end, some boards must adapt as well. For instance, one board I worked with chose to refresh its membership, reducing both the average age and tenure of its members to bring new perspectives aligned with the strategic plan.
In another case, a board had grown complacent. Members showed up sporadically, often unprepared. This lack of accountability permeated the organization, undermining its standards and culture.
Unfortunately, board evaluations alone rarely spark transformation. Instead, Watson advocates for a written Board Strategy, a guiding document that steers the board’s actions.
Creating a Strategy for the Board
Watson advises boards to define a vision for themselves and set measurable milestones to ensure the plan stays on course. While this may sound overwhelming for already busy board members, it’s ultimately about cultivating the right mindset, not rigidly following a checklist.
Adopting these principles can help your board become resilient, better equipped to navigate future challenges, and able to avoid the slow slide into mediocrity that affects many corporate teams.
Enjoyed these ideas? Consider checking out the JumpLeap Newsletter and Podcast with my best longform content.
Francis Wade
JumpLeap NewsletterPodcast
Framework Consulting
http://blog.fwconsulting.com : http://fwconsulting.com
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