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Global Expectations: Predicting Economic Trends in an uncertain Global Environment – implications for Jamaican Companies.

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Integration and globalization have made it impossible for countries to avoid the effects of changes in the international environment. An example of this is the recent and commonly referred to 2007-2008 financial crisis which affected majority and possibly all the world. The breakdown within the global environment within the two years has encouraged countries and particularly businesses to take key note of the economic trend within the uncertain global environment.

International markets fluctuate frequently and Jamaica, being a developing economy, is at risk of being greatly affected by any severe negative shock in the global environment. Careful monitoring of global activities can help the country alleviate the impact of negative externalities and reap the benefits from positive externalities.

There are a few concerns that is taking place on the international scene which has been of concern to developing nations such as ours. Over the past two years events such as Brexit, decisions made by the Trump Administration on international relations, Venezuela’s crisis and the never-ending conflicts in the middle east have increased concerns globally.

On 23 June 2016, The British government held a referendum on the issue of Brexit of which the majority voted to leave the European Union.

The UK’s sudden decision to leave the EU came as a shock to many. The United States as well as other countries were concerned about the possible shock waves that may stem from the exit. Due to the linkages of banks across the world, there were concerns about the expected instability it may have caused in the market. Some critics said that this loss could push Britain into a recession. The initial effect was a loss of about 9 percent in the value of the British pound one week following the vote. It is expected that Britain could experience more fallout as time progresses.  The area of most concern is in trade and trade policies. The EU is UK’s biggest trade partner, however, with their decision to leave, it is expected that new policies will be drafted. Caribbean nations, such as Jamaica, are eagerly watching the international scene to see any further impact that Brexit will have as a nation and on us as a region.

When the United States elected the Donald Trump administration it initially resulted in uncertainty, which caused leaders worldwide to think about the possible global consequences of his policies based on his views expressed during his election campaign.

In the Caribbean, many have wondered how his decision on immigration and globalization would impact the countries. The US is the largest trading partner in the Caribbean and remittance contributes significantly to the foreign currencies in the region, hence any decision relating to trade policies and migration will have some amount of impact regionally. On January 25, Donald Trump signed an executive order that reinstates the Secure Communities Programme to target undocumented immigrants. The order also directs the State Department to withhold visas or take other measures to ensure that countries take back their undocumented immigrants. What this means is that illegal Caribbean migrants will be sent back to their homeland, which could possibly lead to a large amount of deportees, which many countries cannot at this time facilitate. The Trump administration has also proposed a repatriation plan that is expected to bring in approximately US$2.6 trillion. US corporation taxes are expected to be lowered, which may have a significant impact on US investments in other countries.

It goes without saying that oil is an essential element in an economy. Hence the price of oil will affect significantly utility, services and commodity prices. The recent Venezuelan crisis and the continuing war in the Middle East has raised concern about their impact on exports. Of the top ten world oil exporters two are middle eastern countries which are, Saudi Arabia at number one and Iraq at number three while Venezuela is at number nine.

 

Above is graph reflecting the movements of the US$ per barrel prices of Dated Brent and the West Texas Intermediate over the period January 2016 to June 2017. There was a noticeable increase moving from November 2016 to December 2016 and prices have generally have been relatively higher that the prices in the early months of 2016. An upward movement like this could cause oil prices to surge resulting. One recommendation is to continue with the oil hedge as oil prices can increase at any time. BM

 

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GCT Exemption Threshold for MSMEs Increased to JA$15 Million

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The Government of Jamaica has announced an increase in the General Consumption Tax (GCT) exemption threshold from $10 million to $15 million for micro, small and medium-sized enterprises (MSMEs).

Minister of Finance and the Public Service, Hon. Fayval Williams, in opening the 2025/26 Budget Debate in the House of Representatives on March 11, said the change is aimed at supporting the growth and development of small businesses.

Mrs. Williams said the latest figures from the Small Business Association of Jamaica (SBAJ) show that there are an estimated 422,000 registered small businesses in Jamaica, generating 80 per cent of the jobs in the Jamaican economy.

“This means 1,136,240 persons in our workforce are employed by MSMEs,” the Finance Minister noted.

In addition, the Minister said the Government has allocated $2 billion to support MSMEs.

“[The sum of] $2 billion is in the Budget for the Development Bank of Jamaica (DBJ) to allow them to continue to facilitate sustainable growth of start-ups and MSMEs, and to continue to support women-led initiatives, entrepreneurship training, including digital skills bootcamp,” she outlined.

The DBJ is a public body in the Ministry of Economic Growth and Job Creation that channels financing to MSMEs, as well as large projects, to facilitate economic growth and development.

“It will continue to pursue innovative means of mobilising funding and leveraging private-sector investment and expertise through its venture capital programme, as well as public-private partnerships and privatisation transactions,” Mrs. Williams said.

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JA$2 Billion in Support to Jamaican MSMES

“Small business owners have said to me that opening a bank account for their business is difficult. They feel there’s no difference between the requirements for them as MSMEs, as opposed to a very large institution,” she noted.

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The Development Bank of Jamaica (DBJ) has been allocated $2 billion in the 2025/26 Estimates of Expenditure to support funding to the micro, small and medium-sized enterprise (MSME) sector.

Minister of Finance and the Public Service, Hon. Fayval Williams, made the disclosure while delivering the opening presentation in the 2025/26 Budget Debate in the House of Representatives on Tuesday (March 11).

“It (the DBJ) will continue to pursue innovative means of mobilising funding and leveraging private-sector investment and expertise through its venture capital programme, as well as public-private partnerships and privatisation transactions,” she informed.

Mrs. Williams noted the Government’s commitment to the MSME sector, which includes an estimated 422,000 registered small businesses, generating 80 per cent of the jobs in the economy.

Approximately 1,136,240 persons are employed by MSMEs.

The Minister acknowledged that there are several issues facing the sector, including lack of equitable access to financing, high interest rates and cumbersome requirements for opening bank accounts.

“Small business owners have said to me that opening a bank account for their business is difficult. They feel there’s no difference between the requirements for them as MSMEs, as opposed to a very large institution,” she noted.

She pledged to work with Minister of Industry, Investment and Commerce, Senator the Hon. Aubyn Hill, to reduce the requirements for the entities to open bank accounts.

The Finance Minister noted, further, that Government will be increasing the General Consumption Tax (GCT) exemption for small businesses from $10 million to $15 million.

By: Donique Weston JIS

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Jamaica Open For High-Value Agricultural Investments – Minister Green

“Now is the time for high-value agricultural investment, right here in Jamaica. Things that we produce in Jamaica are sought after all over the world. As such, we do believe there are significant opportunities now in agro processing,” Mr. Green said.

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Jamaica is being touted as a prime destination for high-value agricultural investments.

Minister of Agriculture, Fisheries and Mining, Hon. Floyd Green, highlighted that the country is at a pivotal stage in its transformation, pointing out that the Ministry’s key objectives are to drive investment, expand trade, and strengthen food security.

“To achieve this objective, the nation must collaborate with its international partners,” he told members of the Diplomatic Corps on Wednesday (March 12).

Minister Green said Jamaica, having seen a declining debt-to-GDP ratio and myriad other positive economic outcomes in recent years, is well positioned to take advantage of global opportunities.

He was speaking during a Ministerial Briefing at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Foreign Trade in downtown Kingston, which formed part of activities marking Diplomatic Week 2025.

Mr. Green said while Jamaica currently benefits from several trade arrangements with its regional partners, the Government wants to expand the global footprint in trade and investment.

“What we want to see from my Ministry’s perspective [is] how we can leverage these arrangements to do much more. As such, we want to work with you (the diplomatic corps) to drive trade expansion, to reduce market barriers and to facilitate direct connections with importers and distributors so that we can expand our exports,” the Minister outlined.

He added that there are significant investment opportunities and win-win proposals for Jamaica and its partners.

“Now is the time for high-value agricultural investment, right here in Jamaica. Things that we produce in Jamaica are sought after all over the world. As such, we do believe there are significant opportunities now in agro processing,” Mr. Green said.

The Minister emphasised that one area now ripe for investments is orchard crop farming.

“We do have land available for investment in orchard crops. In fact, we’ve developed our first ever mango orchard, or mango agro park, where we invite private-sector investors to come in and establish 50-acre blocks of mango farms. That is going well. In fact, we’ve already established about 200 acres. We want to establish another 300 acres in this financial year,” the Minister outlined.

Mr. Green also touted opportunities in livestock farming and the dairy industry, noting that Jamaica is looking to leverage partnerships in this area.

“We want to facilitate greater bilateral discussions between you and your home countries with Jamaica’s agricultural sector around investment… around connecting investors with local projects that can accelerate economic growth,” he told the diplomats.

Mr. Green pointed out that Jamaica’s collaboration with its international partners has been instrumental in advancing the nation’s economic agenda.

By: Donique Weston, JIS

Photo: Yhomo Hutchinson

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Powering the Future: How Tech and Policy Are Driving Explosive Growth in Energy Storage, Renewables, and EVs

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The energy storage, renewable energy, and electric vehicle (EV) industries are experiencing significant growth, driven by technological advancements and policy support.

Energy Storage Sector

The global energy storage market is projected to expand from USD 416.02 billion in 2025 to USD 841.19 billion by 2033, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 9.2% (Straits Research, 2024). This growth is primarily attributed to the increasing integration of renewable energy sources and the need for grid stability. In the United States, battery energy storage capacity is expected to nearly double by 2024, reaching over 30 gigawatts (U.S. Energy Information Administration, 2023).Mission-Critical Energy Storage Battery Pack Sector.

Mission-Critical Energy Storage Battery Pack Sector

The demand for mission-critical energy storage solutions is intensifying, particularly in sectors requiring an uninterrupted power supply, such as data centres and healthcare facilities. The U.S. battery energy storage system market is anticipated to witness a CAGR of 30.5% from 2024 to 2030, reaching USD 4.4 billion by 2030 (Grand View Research, 2023). This surge is driven by the need for reliable backup power and the integration of renewable energy sources into critical infrastructure.

Renewable Energy Industry

The renewable energy sector is undergoing rapid expansion. In 2024, the United States added 48.2 gigawatts of solar, wind, and battery storage capacity, a 47% increase from the previous year (The Guardian, 2025). Declining costs and supportive policies like the Inflation Reduction Act 2022 propel this growth. Globally, China has made significant strides, adding clean energy generation in the first half of 2024, equivalent to the entire electricity output of the United Kingdom for the previous year (The Guardian, 2024).

Electric Vehicle Industry

The EV market is expanding swiftly. In 2023, electric cars accounted for approximately 18% of all vehicles sold globally, up from 14% in 2022 (International Energy Agency, 2024). Projections indicate that by 2024, 25% of all new passenger car registrations will be electric, surpassing 17 million units in sales worldwide (GreenMatch, 2024). This trend is supported by technological advancements, increased consumer acceptance, and policy incentives to reduce carbon emissions. These industries are experiencing robust growth, driven by technological innovation, policy support, and a global shift towards sustainable energy solutions.

Extracted from Alexander Melville Chief Executive Officer Tropical Battery Company Limited (TROPICAL) – Interim Financial Statements For The First Quarter Ended December 31, 2024

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Corporate Movements: Margaret Campbell Appointed CEO of GKMS Group; Lee-Anne Bruce Named COO

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GraceKennedy Limited (GK) is pleased to announce leadership changes at GraceKennedy Money Services (GKMS) as part of its ongoing succession plan and strategic talent development and deployment.

Effective April 1, 2025, Margaret Campbell will assume the role of Chief Executive Officer (CEO) of the GKMS Group. Campbell, who has worked with GKMS for over 25 years, has served as its Chief Operating Officer (COO) since 2020. She joined GKMS in 1996 and has held several leadership roles during her tenure including, Financial Controller, Chief Financial Officer (CFO), and Country Manager for GKMS Jamaica. A Fellow Certified Chartered Accountant, Campbell also holds an MBA in Finance from the University of Manchester and serves on several GK subsidiary boards. She is also the current President of the Jamaica Money Remitters Association.

Frank James, Group CEO of GraceKennedy, expressed confidence in Campbell’s leadership, stating, “Margaret has demonstrated strong leadership and an unwavering commitment to providing exceptional value and convenience to our customers across Jamaica and the wider Caribbean, in keeping with our vision of being the number one Caribbean brand in the world. I have no doubt she will continue to drive GKMS forward.”

Grace Burnett, CEO of GKFG, added, “Margaret’s industry expertise and strategic approach make her the ideal person to lead GKMS into the future. Her experience and passion for operational excellence will be instrumental as GKFG continues to grow and evolve.” The announcement of Campbell’s appointment comes as Burnett, who has led GKMS since 2019, prepares to retire from GraceKennedy later this year.

Lee-Anne Bruce

Additionally, GraceKennedy has named Lee-Anne Bruce as the new COO of the GKMS Group, also effective April 1, 2025. Bruce holds a bachelor’s degree from the Frank G. Zarb School of Business at Hofstra University and is a Certified Anti-Money Laundering Specialist. With over a decade in senior leadership roles at GK, she has served as Group Chief Compliance Officer, Chief Risk Officer, and most recently, Chief Audit Executive. She began her career at GK in 2003, when she played a key role in GKMS’ expansion into the Eastern Caribbean.

Margaret Campbell, incoming GKMS CEO, welcomed Bruce’s appointment, stating, “Lee-Anne is no stranger to GKMS and her extensive experience and understanding of our business will undoubtedly be invaluable in her new role.”

In light of the leadership changes at GKMS, Judith Chung, Group Chief Compliance Officer & Senior Legal Counsel, will act as Chief Audit Executive of GraceKennedy Limited, while Jason Bailey, Head of Risk, will temporarily assume responsibility for the Compliance portfolio.

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