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BARGAINS ON HARBOUR STREET Companies going cheap

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16 years ago

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“Those people who step up to the plate with confidence will come out of this crisis very well,”

Michael Lee Chin, Chairman NCB Group.

 

Hit hard by declining earnings, rapid depreciation of the Jamaican dollar, higher than projected interest rates and resulting tightened liquidity, 2008 proved to be the worst in the past six years for the many of the stocks listed on the Jamaica Stock Exchange. Overtaken by developments in the international and local markets, the three JSE indices failed to hold the position held in the early part of the year. Many of the Exchange’s blue chips traded at their lowest levels in 52 weeks as investors sold out and moved away from stocks to money market investments.

The report filed on the Jamaica Stock Exchange website for the end of December indicated that the year’s trading session reflected the following movement of the JSE Indices: –

* The JSE Market Index declined by 27,816.03 points (34.70%) to close at 80,152.03.

* The JSE Select Index declined by 944.23 points (47.57%) to close at 1,984.74.

* The JSE All Jamaican Composite declined by 32,787.93 points (44.31%) to close at 73,994.93.

Overall Market activity resulted from trading in 55 stocks of which 16 advanced, 35 declined and

4 traded firm. Market volume amounted to 2,295,666,264 units valued at over $24,066,168,185.51.

And the trend continues, with more companies trading even lower than the December 2009 closing figures. According to Steven Jackson writing recently in the Caribbean Business Report “The last time the market declined this much was in May 1996 at 12,936 points down 29 per cent year on year. But it is still better than in 1993 when the market lost 65 per cent of its value. It dipped from 32,421 points in January to 11,221 points by January 1994, losing over 90 per cent of its market capitalisation from J$1.45 billion to J$129.8 million according to Bank of Jamaica data.”

According to a leading brokerage firm in a published outlook on the economy for 2009, many of the quoted equity prices appear attractively priced relative to historical values. They also suggest that equity prices may well fall further before a rebound is seen, suggesting that even better bargains are on the horizon.

An interesting point raised by one analyst contact for this article was that “You don’t have to sell a lot of stock to impact price one way or the other.” Suggesting that small stock trades can and have impacted a company’s stock price, which is a concern for many and also implying an opportunity for manipulation. So the big question to be addressed by the Jamaica Stock Exchange is, should small trades be allowed to impact market prices. Businessuite understands that this concern has been raised by some companies. Donette Johnson, Senior Equities Trader at Jamaica Money Market Brokers, in responding to this point indicated that, “As a matter of fact, the JSE has attempted to address the perception of ‘manipulation’ on the market by introducing the average price being used as the closing price for the day. So no longer can brokers use 100 units at 11:59 to close stock prices at higher levels when indeed the market is trading at lower prices (this would give a misconception to investors and cause widespread disharmony among the investing public and even in some instances deter persons from even considering entering the market due to this perception and continued practice by brokers).”

But 2008 was a year when many of the companies listed on the Exchange saw the listed value of their stocks make drastic declines. Volumes traded was also on the high side, where in December for example Cable and Wireless Jamaica Ltd. was the volume leader with 503,461,572.00 units (21.93%) followed by Supreme Ventures Limited with 403,006,606 units (17.56%) and Jamaica Broilers Ltd. with 226,205,373 units (9.85%).

BOJ Impacts Market

According to financial analyst Fayval Williams, one of the contributing factors to the movement away from the stock market was the reversal in the local interest rate trend. Bank of Jamaica began raising interest rates in January, 2008.  Interest rates were adjusted upwards by 1% across all tenors of BOJ instruments and have been rising since then making money market instruments more attractive versus stocks. Donette Johnson Senior Equities Trader Jamaica Money Market Brokers Limited, however saw it differently. “I beg to differ on this point, as interest rates started trending up as soon as the credit crunch hit in September ’08 and financial houses were converting left, right and center in order to meet margin calls being made by overseas brokers. As a result of this pressure to convert to US$ this put added pressure on the J$. So the BOJ responded to stabilise that currency market by increasing local interest rates.”

Another factor argued by Fayval Williams was the weakening economy going forward as investors realized that the US recessions would spill over into Jamaica via remittance, tourism and bauxite sectors. This spelt a more uncertain economic environment and weaker profits for companies, not a good backdrop for stocks.

Other investors have also argued supporting Williams’s view that the high interest rate, initiated by the BOJ impacted the stock market last year as a result investors not able to realise the comparable 25% return on stock investments shifted by selling stocks and putting the money in high BOJ induced interest rates. It was even argued by some that the actions by investors looking forward were pre-emptive as they opted to move funds now rather than wait in an uncertain environment.

With the prevailing tight liquidity conditions on the international markets, the Government of Jamaica has increasingly turned to the local market to meet funding requirements.  This creates added impetus for further increases in interest rates locally and movement away from stocks. (Note: interest rates started to trend downwards sometime in March).

Marlene Street-Forrest General Manager of the Jamaica Stock Exchange was recently quoted as saying “Hardly any analyst would be able to say to you specifically when you are going to see a recovery. We are hoping it will rebound by next year but I have not applied any scientific basis.” (Did you ask Mrs. Street-Forrest for a guesstimate on the performance of the indices this calendar year end 2009?).

Street-Forrest blamed the ongoing decline in market performance on the global meltdown, high interest rates and its crippling spill over effect on company earnings in 2008.

“We have seen share prices at one of the lowest in recent times. This can be accounted for by the general bear market that we have seen that has continued over the last two years and has been coupled by the global financial crisis. Also, some of the companies financial returns posted lower than projected,” she said adding that now is the time to buy stocks.

The economic environment will affect the speed of recovery she stated, adding that the 2009/10 budgetary measures are being analysed to determine its effect on business.

The role of interest rates

“Interest rate reduction will play a factor in the demand for stocks. Next we are looking at the situation in the global arena and the recovery in overseas equity markets. Markets are based on confidence and the extent that investors feel there is more risk in the equities market then they will tend to shy away from it,” she argued.

As one high profile trader indicated “Stocks go up when companies are reporting rising profits but companies were reporting negative company profits going forward as people were buying and consuming less so this was also a contributing factor in my shifting funds away from stocks last year.”

Consumer Confidence Falls

The recently published Jamaica Chamber of Commerce (JCC) consumer confidence report said consumers judged the current state of the economy more negatively than the third quarter of 2008, these downbeat assessments did not cause pessimism about future economic prospects, It was reported that one third of all consumers at the close of 2008 felt that the economy had worsened, up from one in four at the start of the year. At the same time the proportion of consumers that anticipated better conditions remained largely unchanged, the report added.

However, Professor Richard Curtin, head of survey research unit at the University of Michigan, sees the optimism as somewhat surprising given the global economic slowdown and Jamaica’s dependence on tourism and remittances. “Consumers do not expect the kind of slowdown in the economy that I think is going to happen,”

Companies respond

As early as mid 2008 it was quietly reported that companies had already started to respond to the reduction in their income and profitability by laying off staff, seeking increased efficiencies in operation and purchases coupled with the overall use of assets. Going forward into 2009 and early 2010 financial institutions will see a further slowing down of their earnings as loan portfolios are not expected to grow at previous pace due to all the aforementioned factors. Manufacturing companies it is argued should benefit from moderation in prices, but will be adversely affected as consumers cut back on consumption due to lower disposable incomes.

Pessimistic Outlook Hides Value

“Wealth is created by owning businesses”.

Michael Lee Chin, NCB Group Chairman in a recently published article in the Caribbean Business Report recalls that about 10 years ago many Jamaican assets were snapped up by our Caribbean ‘brethren’ but with stock prices down all over the world he believes Jamaican companies now have an opportunity to buy back those companies and continue to make them profitable.

“If you are a foreign investor who bought a Jamaican asset 10 years ago, even though the asset as measured in Jamaican dollars has done well, by foreign currencies and hard assets that’s a different matter.

If you look at stock prices of the likes of Caribbean Cement, NCB, Grace, Guardian, they are now low. The question though is: who has money to acquire these assets? Who is liquid? Well, our pension funds are liquid. Our pension funds have gotten into the habit of investing in repos and government paper. Now that is not investing.

The pension managers are not optimising the wealth creation portion of their portfolios. Over the long haul, equities have always proven to be the best asset class, so now is a great time to be buying them because they are historically cheap.”

Where are they?

But where exactly are the bargain buys? Michelle Hirst, Research Manager at Stocks & Securities Ltd (SSL) thinks the following stocks are at bargain BUYS, plus just as important, strong business models, strong barriers to entry, strong management and above average long-term growth rates with a proven track record:

o   Pan-Jamaican Investment Trust

o   GraceKennedy

o   Salada Foods Jamaica Ltd

o   Jamaica Producers

o   Jamaica Broilers Group

o   Scotia Group Jamaica

o   Desnoes & Geddes

However, she continues “ we do think that local equity prices still have an inherent short-term (one year or less) downside risk of 20-30% from current price levels, dependent on how worse the credit crisis gets, recession, etc, where the DOW heads to, which we anticipate to be 6,600 points or less.

Therefore, although SSL does not advise clients to try and time the market, we recommend to cautiously BUY the above levels/positions and if we see for example Pan-Jam trade down to 18-20, we would recommend more aggressive purchasing here.

Also note another negative that always affects our market in the short-term is high interest rates as investors’ put funds to work in fixed income v. local equities. For the long-term YES the above equities show strong value at current prices meaning an investor to hold for 3 years or longer from “t”.”

According to one leading brokerage firm, unless there are clear signs of recovery in corporate profits, stability in the foreign exchange markets and lower interest rates, causing stock prices to move back up, investors will not go back to the equities market. They also suggest that if the local dollar continues to depreciate at its current pace, the possibility still exist that interest rates could go higher.

So with corporate profits expected to weaken in 2009 as further softening in consumer spending take place the projection is for flat market conditions in 2009.

For many this downward movement in stock prices was a direct response to the local and global economic crisis, the upward shift in interest rates and the continued fallout from the failed alternative investment schemes. But for the calculated few with cash, this is an opportunity to make a move on some bargain buys on Harbour Street. The expectation is that the present financial crisis will be over before the end of 2010 if not before, so buying these companies now and holding the stock until they move rapidly back up will give cash hoarding investor’s significant return on their investments. The big question now is other than institutional investors, who has that kind of cash? BM

Additional Source; Compiled from various published and internet sources

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Businessuite Markets

Sygnus Real Estate Finance Strategically Increases Stake In One Belmont From 70% To 86%

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4 days ago

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April 20, 2025

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Results of Operations

SRF continued the transition between its first and second investment life cycles with a number of key initiatives, namely:

  • Strategically increased its stake in the 9-storey One Belmont commercial tower asset from 70% to 86%;
  • Increased its investment in income generating third-party real estate investment notes (REINs) by 25.3% to J$2.30 billion; exited J$1.72 billion of investments;
  • Paid its first dividend of J$0.2012 per ordinary share in December 2024.

Primarily as a result of the increased stake in One Belmont, SRF generated a net profit for Q2 2025 versus a loss in the similar period last year, and a lower loss for 6 Months FY 2025 versus the similar period last year.

Book value per share increased 5.0% to J$24.05 compared to J$22.91 last year, given a J$372.06 million or 13.5% increase in retained earnings to J$3.13 billion as at the end of the period.

SRF continued to advance the ongoing execution of interior build-out works for some tenants of the One Belmont property, and the monetization of its partial exit from the One Belmont investment; and advancing the value creation process for the Mammee Bay hospitality asset in St. Ann and the Lakespen industrial asset in St. Catherine.

The Group remains dedicated to executing its strategy of unlocking value in real estate assets to enhance shareholder value.

For Q2 2025, total investment income or core revenues was J$152.25 million compared to negative J$24.35 million for the three months ended February 29, 2024 (“Q2 2024”). While total investment income or core revenues was J$26.59 million for 6 Month FY 2025 compared to negative J$55.31 million for the six months ended February 29, 2024 (“6 Month FY 2024”). This was primarily due to increased lease and other income, a gain on disposal of financial instruments of J$33.73 million, a gain on acquisition of shares in Joint Venture of J$162.20 million, and share of gain on joint ventures of J$39.26 million. The gain on acquisition of shares in Joint Venture resulted from SRF’s strategic decision to increase its exposure to the One Belmont commercial tower. On a net basis, SRF’s overall income from this asset was J$209.95 million for 6 Month FY 2025.

The weighted average fair value yield on REINs was 8.7% compared with 4.3% last year, with the weighted average yield on REINs measured at amortised cost being 14.4% vs 13.5% last year. The increases noted were due to the redeployment of capital into higher yielding real estate investment notes. The weighted average fair value yield on REINs is expected to improve significantly during the current financial year as SRF continues to substantially increase its exposure into third-party income-generating assets.

The weighted average cost of debt was 9.0% compared with 7.6% last year. This result was due to a higher interest rate environment as well as SRF securing longer duration debt. One of the tranches of SRF’s 2024 capital raise has a variable interest rate structure, which becomes effective after the first year which SRF expects to benefit from as market interest rates move downwards.

The share of gain on joint ventures amounted to J$15.63 million for the quarter ending February 28, 2025, compared to a nominal loss of J$0.51 million last year, while the share of gain on joint ventures was J$39.26 million for 6 Month FY 2025 compared to a loss of J$0.81 million last year. This was mainly driven by SRF’s increased ownership stake of 86% of the Audere Holdings Limited joint venture and SRF’s 71.0% ownership in the newly formed joint venture company referred to as 5658 LMR Limited, whose underlying assets are two (2) resort villa properties located in Ocho Rios, Saint Ann.

SRF’s total investment income consisted of various activities aimed at unlocking value from its real estate investment portfolio, namely: interest income, lease income and commitment fees related to REINs; gain or loss on property investments or on exited real estate assets; and share of gain or loss on its joint venture investments.

Due to the nature of its business model, SRF may experience fluctuations or “lumpiness” in total investment income and net profits during interim reporting periods, which usually stabilizes by the end of each financial year, as evidenced by the FYE Aug 2024 results relative to the interim quarterly performance. The Group uses independent appraisers to value its investment assets annually. All investment properties are USD investment assets which are converted to JMD for financial reporting purposes. SRF’s key strategic assets are held via wholly owned subsidiaries or joint ventures.

For the three months ended February 28, 2025, net investment income or core earnings was J$66.75 million versus negative J$113.22 million last year. While for the six months ended February 28, 2025, net investment income or core earnings was negative J$160.21 million versus negative J$228.10 million last year. The increase recorded during the quarter was mainly attributable to SRF’s gain on its acquisition of additional shares in Audere Holdings Limited, increasing its stake in the joint venture from 70% to 86%. For FYE August 2024, SRF generated J$508.50 million in net investment income.

Net profit for Q2 2025 amounted to J$38.24 million relative to a loss of J$187.15 million last year, while net loss for 6 Month FY 2025 amounted to J$197.45 million vs a loss of J$320.13 million in the corresponding period last year. The improvement for both periods was mainly due to gains on investments executed during the quarter. SRF generated an average annual return on equity (ROE) of 19.1% over the past five years of its first investment life cycle through the end August 2024.

Basic earnings per share (EPS) was J$0.12 for Q2 2025 relative to negative J$0.57 last year, while diluted EPS was identical to basic compared to negative J$0.53 last year.

Basic earnings per share (EPS) was negative J$0.60 for 6 Month FY 2025 relative to negative J$0.98 last year, while diluted EPS was identical to basic compared to negative J$0.91 last year.

Similarly, basic core earnings or net investment income per share (NIIPS) was J$0.20 for Q2 2025, compared with negative J$0.35 last year. For 6 Month FY 2025, basic core earnings or net investment income per share (NIIPS) was negative J$0.49, compared with negative J$0.70 last year.

Dr. Ike Johnson Director Sygnus Real Estate Finance Limited 

For More Information on Sygnus Real Estate Finance Limited (SRF) Unaudited Financial Statements Quarter Ended February 28, 2025(Q2-2025) CLICK HERE

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Express Catering’s Outlook Is For An Excellent Summer Season

The winter season is now ending but the outlook is for an excellent summer season and we are ready to serve our many patrons.

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4 days ago

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April 20, 2025

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Ian Dear CEO and Director Of Express Catering Limited (ECL) Has Released The Following Third Quarter Interim Report On The Operations Of The Company For Fiscal 2025. The Report Is For The Quarter And Nine Months Ending February 28, 2025.

Total passengers accessing the post security departure lounge of the Sangster International Airport during the Third Quarter was 652,656. This generated revenue of US$7.43 million for a spend rate per passenger of US11.38.

For the similar Quarter in the prior year, 705,116 passengers accessed the departure lounge. Total revenue of US$7.04 million was earned at a spend rate per passenger of US$10.05.

Despite the decline in passenger totals, total revenue and spend rate improved. The improvement in spend rate is particularly important as the increase was significant and is a result of the strategic measures that the company has been implementing over time.

Net profit earned for the Quarter was US$1.77 million for an EPS of 0.108 US Cents per share. This is compared to a net profit of US$1.06 million for an EPS of 0.065 US Cents for the similar period in the prior year.

For the nine months to date, the passenger total was 1.80 million. This generated revenue of US$18.89 million for a spend per passenger rate of US$10.49. The metrics for the similar nine months in the prior year were passenger total of 1.96 million passengers, revenue of US$18.67 million and spend rate of US$9.53.

Net profit for the nine months was US$3.22 million for an EPS of 0.197 US Cents. Net profit earned for the similar period in the prior year was US$2.09 million, for an EPS of 0.127 US Cents. Dividend declared and paid for the fiscal year to date was just over US$1.00 million.

Of all the cost categories, Cost of Sales (COS) continues to be our best area of savings for the Quarter and year-to-date positions.  This category registered just under seven percentage points improvement for the Quarter and just under five percentage points improvement for the nine months. The improvement was a combination of price increases, better portion controls, as well as improved supply chain agreements. The team intends to build on the trend for the rest of the year.

Savings were also recorded in Salaries and Wages, in line with the previously stated intention to better utilize this resource. There was also a shift in cost allocation from property rental expenses to lease amortization, in line with the increase in Lease Obligation under IFRS 16 rules. The team continues to review all cost categories for additional savings.

The winter season is now ending but the outlook is for an excellent summer season and we are ready to serve our many patrons.

For More Information CLICK HERE

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Knutsford Express Charts Strategic Course Amid Profit Decline and Operational Investments​

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5 days ago

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April 20, 2025

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Knutsford Express Services Limited (KEX) has released its unaudited financial statements for the third quarter ended February 28, 2025, revealing a nuanced financial landscape. While the company experienced a modest revenue uptick, net profits have seen a significant decline, prompting strategic shifts in operations and investments.​

Financial Performance Overview

For the third quarter, KEX reported revenues of J$593 million, marking a 4.8% increase from J$566 million in the same period last year. Over the nine-month period, revenues rose by 7.3%, reaching J$1.643 billion compared to J$1.531 billion previously.

Despite these gains, net profit for the quarter plummeted by 54.9% to J$49 million, down from J$111 million in 2024. The nine-month net profit also declined by 36.8%, settling at J$170 million from J$269 million in the comparative period.​

The company attributes the profit downturn to lingering effects of subdued passenger arrival numbers in Jamaica. Additionally, increased administrative expenses, particularly in staff costs, have impacted profitability. In the first quarter of 2025, administrative expenses rose to J$520 million, affecting net profits despite a revenue increase to J$592 million.

Strategic Investments and Operational Enhancements

In response to these challenges, KEX is investing heavily in fleet expansion and digital transformation. The company plans to inject J$500 million over the next three years to upgrade its bus fleet and implement advanced digital systems . This includes the introduction of airport-style departure gateways and digital ticket-checking kiosks, aimed at enhancing operational efficiency and customer experience.​

The Drax Hall depot in St. Ann has become a focal point for these innovations, serving as a prototype for the new passenger processing model. CEO Oliver Townsend emphasized the importance of these investments, stating, “We’re redoubling our investments and efforts on the core business and on initiatives that will improve our customer’s satisfaction”

Service Portfolio Adjustments

KEX is also refining its service offerings to align with market demands. The company announced the discontinuation of its international shipping and e-commerce service effective October 7, 2024, due to a 10% decline in revenue from overseas courier services . This strategic move allows KEX to focus on its core transportation and local courier services, which continue to be significant revenue streams.

Outlook

Despite current profitability challenges, KEX maintains a strong asset base, which grew by over 10.7% in the third quarter, reaching J$2.113 billion from J$1.926 billion the previous year. The company’s commitment to enhancing operational efficiency and customer satisfaction positions it for potential recovery and growth as market conditions improve.​

Conclusion

Knutsford Express is navigating a complex financial environment with strategic investments in infrastructure and technology. By focusing on core services and operational excellence, the company aims to bolster its market position and return to robust profitability in the coming periods.

For More Information CLICK HERE

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One on One Educational Services remains focused on strengthening One Academy

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5 days ago

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April 20, 2025

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Michael Bernard Chairman One on One Educational Services Limited has released the following unaudited financial statements for the 2nd quarter ended February 29, 2025.

Statement of Comprehensive Income Summary: 

Over the six months ending February 2025, company revenue was J$169.9 million, up from J$111.4 million for the six months ended February 2024. This represents a 52.5% increase over the comparative period, primarily due to the expansion of One Academy, which provides personalized educational solutions for schools, teachers and students. Additionally, the company retained its core annual recurring business from existing contracts, further strengthening revenue growth.

For the second quarter of 2025, revenue reached J$78.0 million, reflecting a 37.6% increase over the same period in the prior year. This growth was attributed to the expansion of One Academy and its ability to deliver personalized solutions through advanced technology, enhancing the accessibility and effectiveness of digital education.

Direct costs for the second quarter amounted to J$22.5 million, an increase of J$4.5 million compared to the previous year. This resulted in a gross profit of J$55.5 million, up 43.5% yearover-year. The increase in direct costs was primarily driven by expenditures related to One Academy’s live streaming of classes across the island  from the company’s central studio. Over the six-month period, direct costs also saw a 45.3% uptick due to one off investments in hosting infrastructure services and the installation of equipment and accessories to facilitate One Academy’s implementation of live classes. While these expenses have contributed to short-term cost increases, they are a strategic investment aimed at driving long-term value creation.

Administrative and selling expenses decreased by J$24.2 million, or 21.5%, over the six-month period, while the second quarter recorded a 19% decline over the comparable 2024 quarter. This reflects the benefits of cost-cutting initiatives aimed at improving operational efficiencies and financial discipline.

A taxation charge of J$226 thousand was recognized for the second quarter, primarily due to deferred taxation, bringing the six-month tax charge to J$894 thousand. The quarter closed with a net profit of J$7.2 million, a significant improvement compared to the net loss of J$19.9 million recorded in the same quarter last year. For the six-month period, net profit reached J$18.4 million, a strong turnaround from the J$41.4 million net loss over the comparative period.

Statement of Financial Position Summary:

Total assets grew to J$662.6 million at the end of the six-month period, reflecting an 8.2% increase from J$612.3 million in the prior year. This growth was primarily driven by investments in non-current assets, particularly the development of intangible assets. Total equity also strengthened, rising to J$423.4 million from J$362.6 million, supported by the company’s improved financial performance. This shift has allowed the company to move from an accumulated deficit of J$51 million to an accumulated surplus of J$9.5 million compared to the previous year. While, total liabilities reduced marginally by 3% year over year.

Statement of Cash Flow Summary:

The cash flow summary for the second quarter of 2025 highlights a substantial improvement in financial performance compared to the same period in 2024. Operating activities generated J$121.5 million in cash flow, while investing activities had reduced outflows. Additionally, financing activities reflected the company’s efforts to pay down loan obligations. These factors contributed to a net cash increase of J$66.7 million, leading to a stronger closing cash balance of J$110.0 million. This improvement underscores the company’s enhanced cash flow management and liquidity position.

During the quarter, the company remained focused on strengthening its One Academy suite of product offerings. This included the continued live streaming of lessons into high schools in Jamaica. Furthermore, the company leveraged its personalized solutions by developing a testing mechanism that allows schools to assess student performance effectively. This solution empowers schools with comprehensive student assessments, enabling the creation of targeted intervention strategies to improve learning outcomes.

In addition, investments continued in enhancing software architecture, particularly the further development of the integrated Education Management Information System (EMIS) and Learning Management System (LMS). These strategic initiatives reinforce the company’s commitment to advancing education delivery through technology, fostering impactful and accessible learning solutions.

These results reflect the company’s commitment to financial sustainability and operational efficiency while positioning itself for continued expansion and long-term success

For More Information CLICK HERE

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JSE launches Green Bond Plus Platform

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2 weeks ago

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April 7, 2025

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