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Barbados 2018-2019 Economic Review

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OVERVIEW

In 2018 Barbados strengthened its reform impetus to start addressing its precarious balance of payments and fiscal situations. In response to the worsening fiscal and external liquidity position, the Government of Barbados (GOBD) announced in June the Barbados Economic Recovery and Transformation Plan (BERT), which aims to restore macroeconomic stability and place the economy on a path of strong, sustainable

and inclusive growth, while safeguarding the financial and social sectors. Included in BERT was the suspension of payments due on debt owed to external commercial creditors and a comprehensive domestic and external debt restructuring.

Fiscal austerity measures related to BERT and the challenging macroeconomic situation negatively impacted the non-traded sectors.

These effects more than offset modest gains in tourism and led to economic contraction of 0.6% in 2018. Inflation fell, but remains above its long-term trend, while public sector layoffs may have contributed to rising unemployment in the fourth quarter (Q4) of the year.

The public finance outturn improved due to deeper fiscal austerity measures, and contributed to a decline in public debt.

Gross international reserves returned to the international benchmark of three months of import cover.

KEY DEVELOPMENTS IN 2018

Real gross domestic product (GDP) contracted by an estimated 0.6% in 2018, (see Chart 1). Despite modest gains in the tourism sector (where activity grew by 0.6%), the decline in overall GDP was due to a 7.0%

fall in construction output and declines in other non-traded sectors such as distribution; business and services; transportation; storage; and communication.

The number of overnight arrivals was 2.8% higher than in 2017, due to increased marketing and additional airlift. However, growth in tourism was constrained by reduced length of stay as more visitors arrived from the United States and Canadian markets compared with the longer-staying visitors from the United

Kingdom (UK). This may be due in part to slower economic growth in the UK and a weaker Pound sterling. Cruise ship passenger arrivals were down, as the number of ship visits fell by almost 10.0%, after the re-routing of vessels in 2017, related to the impact of Hurricanes Irma and Maria.

Fiscal austerity measures related to BERT and concerns about the challenging macroeconomic situation adversely impacted the performance of the non-traded sectors.

Large-scale public and private sector projects were delayed, and the public sector layoffs in the final quarter of 2018 impacted domestic consumption with negative pass-through effects to the rest of the economy.

Inflation pressures eased in the second half of the year. Inflation declined to 3.7% from 4.5% in 2017. These are higher price increases than the trend in previous years, and are mainly due to the impact of the National Social Responsibility Levy (NSRL) and higher international crude oil prices. The removal of NSRL in July 2018, and the softening in international crude oil prices in Q4, both helped to reduce the domestic inflation rate.

The average unemployment rate fell to 9.2% for the four quarters ending September 2018. However, public sector layoffs in Q4 may have contributed to a higher unemployment rate in December 2018.

The fiscal outturn improved as a result of deeper austerity. The primary balance strengthened to 3.4% of GDP for the nine-month period to December 2018, above both the targeted primary balance of 3.3% for

Fiscal Year (FY) 2018/196 and 3.1% in the previous FY. The fiscal austerity programme was underpinned by lower interest payments associated with the sovereign debt restructuring and reduced transfers and subsidies, particularly to state-owned enterprises (SOEs). Broad-based reforms8 to SOEs are underway, on a phased basis, to streamline their operations.

On the revenue side, increased collections (due mainly to a boost in corporate tax receipts9) also contributed to better fiscal performance. New taxes10 were introduced to widen the tax base and the NSRL was removed. Corporate tax rates were also revised as a result of the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development’s Base Erosion and Profit Shifting initiative. The improved fiscal performance contributed to the public sector debt declining to 126.9% of GDP at the end of December, from 148.4% in March. BERT targets a public sector debt to-GDP ratio of 100% by FY 2022/23 and 60% by FY 2033/34.

Commercial banks continued to be characterised by high levels of excess liquidity. The excess cash reserve ratios of commercial banks increased to 16.2% as at December 2018 from 14.1% in the same period in 2017. In the same period, credit to the private sector increased by $227.1 million to $5.8 billion. Meanwhile, the ratio of non-˗performing loans to total loans increased slightly to 11.2% at the end of 2018, from 7.9% at the end of 2017. The reported capital adequacy ratio declined slightly to 15.6%, having been 17% one year before.

The Central Bank of Barbados (CBB) eased its monetary policy stance by lowering the reserve requirement. Improvements in the government fiscal position in 2018 prompted CBB to ease its monetary policy stance. This was a reversal of the December 2017 phased increased in the Barbados dollar securities reserve requirement ratio, which had been intended to provide liquidity support to GOBD. CBB reduced the securities reserve requirements ratio for commercial banks from 20% to 17.5%, effective November 2018.

The debt restructuring came in the immediate aftermath of the adoption of the new accounting standards ‒ International Financial Reporting Standard (IFRS) 9 ‒ with implications for the balance sheets of institutions that held government securities. In particular, IFRS9 requires financial institutions to make loss provisions against all exposures with inherent credit risk, rather than against only those assets that have actually defaulted.

These implications have been reduced somewhat following recent improvement in the country’s credit rating.

Gross international reserves were boosted with the support of international financial institutions. These reserves, which reached a low of 5-6 weeks of import coverage at end of May 2018, more than doubled to 3.4 months as at December 2018).

Accumulation of international reserves was helped, in part, by external financing from the Caribbean Development Bank (CDB), the International Monetary Fund, and the Inter-American Development Bank.

Barbados received its first domestic credit rating upgrade in several years. Standard & Poor’s (S&P) raised its long and short-term local currency sovereign credit ratings on Barbados to ‘B-/B’ from ‘SD/SD’ (selective default) in November 2018. S&P also affirmed its ‘SD/SD’ long and short-term foreign currency credit ratings on the island, and its ‘D’ (default) ratings on Barbados’ foreign-currency issues. The foreign currency rating will remain at Selective Default until Barbados resolves its foreign debt restructuring.

OUTLOOK

CDB expects real GDP growth to be flat in 2019. Economic activity is premised on favorable tourism performance due to growth in major tourism source markets, the opening of Ross University School of Medicine (RUSM), and an anticipated expansion of airlift. The influx of medical students associated with

RUSM may also positively impact other industries such as distribution and transport. This will more than offset the expected drag on economic activity related to the commencement of the next phase11 of BERT and the continuation of fiscal austerity measures.

There is notable upside risk to the forecast depending on the timing of planned private sector projects and possibly higher external demand for financial services as investor confidence strengthens. If the planned private sector projects materialise in the first half of 2019, growth is likely to be positive. On the downside, tensions in the United States of America and Europe (BREXIT) could dampen growth prospects. Also, the Barbados economy remains vulnerable to changes in the price of international commodities and the adverse impacts of climate change and sea level rise. The negotiation of the external debt restructuring is also important for external financing flows.

Source: Regional Economic Summary 2018 Caribbean Development Bank

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itel Opens its Doors in Belize City

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After 2 years of remote operations and less than one year since construction began, itel has now officially opened its Belize City location. The 40,000 square foot facility will eventually house over 700 call center agents plus support staff signaling a huge investment in the Central American country.

This expansion is part of itel’s strategic growth into untapped markets that are ripe for innovation and offer competitive advantages that support customer experience (CX) delivery for emerging high potential industries. Despite an ongoing economic downturn that has affected many CX providers globally, itel has remained resilient and steadfast in its commitment to diversifying its nearshore operations to attract North American brands.

Belize has a relatively young outsourcing industry that has experienced tremendous growth of over 80% since 2005. It’s considered a great value destination due to its high workforce availability, skilled labor pool, a low attrition rate of 10% and the government’s competitive investment program aimed at diversifying the country’s economic activity beyond tourism. Belize City is the country’s hub for its outsourcing industry and itel’s facility is located at the commercial center with easy access for team members to travel in and out of the city from the surrounding areas.

“We’re seeing strong interest from clients who are recognizing Belize as a great alternative to some of the saturated markets, both in the region and offshore, where it’s getting harder and more expensive to recruit and retain talent,” stated Yoni Epstein, CD, itel’s founding Chairman and CEO. “We dipped our toe into the market in 2022 through a partnership and work-at-home model, but we decided to go all in in 2023 and we are opening our doors with a committed base of clients and a pipeline eager to discover what Belize has to offer.”

Belize is the only Central American country with English as its official language.
UNESCO ranked the country 13 th globally for investment in education in 2021 and its bilingual talent pool has a strong affinity to North American culture. For these reasons, as well as its proximity to the US, Belize offers competitive advantages that clients can leverage to provide tailor-made customer experiences and lower their CX delivery costs by staying closer to home.

“We’ve been impressed with the welcome itel has received in the country so far and look forward to continuing to partner with the Government of Belize, local vendors and other stakeholders as we bring clients in to explore its infrastructure and culture. It’s time to invest in Belize outsourcing and as the Caribbean’s largest homegrown CX partner, we’re ready to lead the way,” expressed Epstein.

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Business Events

Jamaica Stock Exchange Regional Conference “Guyana’s Capital Markets: Wealth Creation and Retention”.

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This conference will be held on October 8 – 9, 2024, at the Pegasus Suites and Corporate Centre, Seawall Road, Kingston – Georgetown, Guyana.

Guyana’s Conference will be centred on the theme, “Guyana’s Capital Markets: Wealth Creation and Retention”. The President of the Co-operative Republic of Guyana and Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces, His Excellency Dr Mohamed Irfaan Ali is expected to open the Conference. He will be joined by visiting government dignitaries from Jamaica, other Caribbean Regions, and the rest of the Diaspora.

For More Information CLICK HERE

 

Walkbout Global Adventures
“Explore The World, Live The Culture, Go Beyond The Destination”

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Experience Premium Travel with JUTA Express Powered by InterMetroOne – Corporate Feature

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Traveling across Jamaica has just been elevated to a new level of comfort, convenience, and safety with the introduction of JUTA Express powered by InterMetroOne. This premium bus and coach service, available through the InterMetroOne app, is set to revolutionize travel for both visitors to the island and locals alike, offering a seamless and luxurious way to navigate Jamaica’s main towns.

A Legacy of Excellence

The Jamaica Union of Travellers Association (J.U.T.A.) has been a cornerstone of Jamaican transportation since its inception in 1974. With chapters in major locations such as Mandeville, Portland, Montego Bay, Ocho Rios, Falmouth, Negril, and Lucea, J.U.T.A. boasts a fleet of over 6,500 vehicles, making it the largest transportation company in the Caribbean. Known for its superior customer service, safe and courteous operators, and exceptional staff, J.U.T.A. has set the standard in public transportation. Their commitment to excellence has earned them numerous awards and a sterling reputation among tourists, locals, and corporate clients alike.

Unmatched Comfort and Safety

At JUTA Express, powered by InterMetroOne, your safety and satisfaction are our top priorities. By partnering with J.U.T.A. we ensure that every journey is handled by professional and dedicated operators who are committed to your well-being. From the moment you board until you reach your destination, you can rest assured that we have your comfort and security covered.

Comprehensive Services

JUTA Express offers a broad range of services designed to meet the diverse needs of travelers. Whether you are commuting for work, heading to school, or embarking on a group tour, we have the perfect transportation solution for you. Our services include:

  • Ground Transportation: Reliable and efficient travel across Jamaica’s main towns.
  • Tourism Transportation: Seamless connections to and from major tourist destinations.
  • Staff and Student Contracts: Dependable transport solutions for educational institutions and businesses.
  • Group Tours and Fun Days: Enjoy organized and hassle-free excursions.
  • Airport Transfers: Stress-free transport to and from Jamaica’s national airports.
  • Conventions and Meetings: Coordinated travel for corporate events and large gatherings.
  • Luxury Coach Buses: Accommodations for delayed flights and special occasions.

Book with Ease Using InterMetroOne

The InterMetroOne app makes booking your travel with JUTA Express simple and convenient. Available on both Google Play and the App Store, the app provides a user-friendly interface where you can plan and manage your trips with ease. With just a few taps, you can schedule rides, track your journey in real-time, and enjoy exclusive perks and rewards.

Why Choose JUTA Express Powered by InterMetroOne?

  1. Professional Service: Experience the best in Jamaican transportation with J.U.T.A.’s highly trained and courteous operators.
  2. Safety and Security: Travel with peace of mind, knowing that your well-being is our top priority.
  3. Comfort and Convenience: Enjoy spacious, air-conditioned buses with complimentary snacks and drinks.
  4. Seamless Integration: Book, track, and manage your trips effortlessly with the InterMetroOne app.
  5. Trusted Legacy: Benefit from J.U.T.A.’s decades of experience and award-winning service.

Join Us on a Journey of Excellence

Whether you are a visitor exploring the vibrant culture of Jamaica or a local navigating your daily commute, JUTA Express powered by InterMetroOne is your ideal travel companion. Download the InterMetroOne app today and discover a new standard of transportation that combines the reliability of J.U.T.A. with the innovative technology of InterMetroOne.

Experience the Difference. Travel with JUTA Express Powered by InterMetroOne.   

 

JUTA’s transportation solution

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Artificial Intelligence

AMK Communications Pioneers AI-Generated Advertising Campaign for InterMetroONE

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In a landmark move set to redefine the advertising landscape, AMK Communications, through its subsidiary Click Digital Agency, is poised to launch Jamaica’s first AI-generated advertising campaign for the revolutionary InterMetroONE super app. This ground-breaking initiative not only marks a significant milestone for Jamaica but also positions AMK Communications as a leader in innovative marketing strategies within the Caribbean region.

A New Era of Advertising

The introduction of AI-generated advertising heralds a new era of creativity and efficiency in marketing. By leveraging advanced artificial intelligence, AMK Communications can produce highly targeted, data-driven campaigns that resonate deeply with diverse audiences. This technology enables the creation of personalized content at scale, ensuring that every message is relevant and engaging.

Unparalleled Benefits for Clients

For clients, the benefits of AI-generated advertising are manifold:

Enhanced Creativity: AI tools can analyse vast amounts of data to generate unique, creative concepts that might not emerge through traditional brainstorming sessions. This opens up new avenues for storytelling and brand expression.

Data-Driven Insights: AI provides valuable insights into consumer behavior and preferences, allowing for more precise targeting and message customization. This ensures that marketing efforts are not only creative but also strategically aligned with audience interests.

Efficiency and Scalability: AI can rapidly produce multiple variations of ads, testing and refining them in real-time to optimize performance. This reduces the time and cost associated with traditional ad creation and allows for quick adjustments based on market feedback.

Personalization at Scale: With AI, it’s possible to create highly personalized advertisements for large audiences, ensuring that each viewer receives a message that feels uniquely tailored to them. This enhances engagement and drives better results.

Setting Trends in the Caribbean

AMK Communications’ initiative is part of a broader trend towards the adoption of AI in advertising. Globally, AI is being used to create more dynamic, interactive, and personalized ad experiences. From chatbots and virtual assistants to AI-driven video content, the possibilities are endless. This move by AMK places Jamaica and the Caribbean at the forefront of these international developments, showcasing the region’s ability to innovate and lead in the digital age.

Looking Ahead

The AI-generated campaign for InterMetroONE will serve as a benchmark for future marketing efforts, demonstrating the power and potential of artificial intelligence in advertising. As AI continues to evolve, it will unlock even more opportunities for creativity and efficiency, helping brands to connect with their audiences in deeper, more meaningful ways.

AMK Communications Limited and Click Digital Agency are not just launching a campaign; they are setting a new standard for the industry, proving that the future of advertising is here and it is powered by AI. Clients can look forward to a new realm of possibilities, where technology and creativity come together to deliver exceptional results.

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Business Insights

Who Is Gervase Warner, Former President and CEO of Massy Holdings?

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Early Career and Rise to Leadership
Gervase Warner, a distinguished figure in the Caribbean business landscape, has been an influential leader in the region. Before joining Massy Holdings, Warner had a thriving career in consultancy, working with McKinsey & Company. His decision to leave this high-profile consultancy role and return to Trinidad and Tobago to work with Massy was driven by a desire to reconnect with family and contribute to the Caribbean’s advancement​.

Tenure at Massy Holdings
Warner’s tenure at Massy Holdings was marked by significant growth and strategic initiatives. Under his leadership, Massy expanded its footprint across the Caribbean and into Latin America, notably increasing its retail, motor, and gas products businesses. Warner emphasized the importance of a strong corporate culture, which he believed was crucial to the company’s success​​.

He also advocated for a regional stock exchange, which he saw as essential for improving price discovery and parity across Caribbean markets. This initiative aimed to integrate stock exchanges from Barbados, Jamaica, Trinidad, Guyana, and the OECS, drawing inspiration from Africa’s Pan-African Payment and Settlement System​.

The Whistleblower Incident and Resignation
Warner’s leadership faced a significant challenge in late 2023 when Angelique Parisot-Potter, Massy’s former General Counsel and Executive Vice-President of Business Integrity, publicly disclosed concerns about a leadership training program during the company’s Annual General Meeting. Parisot-Potter alleged that the program, which involved bizarre rituals and frequent travel to Florida, was misusing company funds. This led to her being placed on administrative leave and eventually resigning​.

The incident sparked internal and public scrutiny, culminating in Warner’s resignation in early 2024, nearly a year ahead of his planned retirement. The abrupt departure raised concerns about the potential destabilization of Massy Holdings and highlighted the challenges of maintaining corporate reputation amidst internal controversies​.

Legacy and Future Directions
Despite the controversy, Warner’s legacy at Massy Holdings includes a strong emphasis on leadership development and strategic expansion. His vision for a regional stock exchange and his efforts to enhance Massy’s market presence have set a foundation for future growth.

Warner’s successor, David Affonso, a 34-year veteran of Massy, was appointed to lead the company forward. Affonso’s experience and leadership within the Integrated Retail Portfolio, which constitutes a significant portion of Massy’s revenue and profit, are expected to guide the company through this transition​.

Insights into Management Style
Warner’s management style was characterized by a deep commitment to leadership development and a belief in the power of corporate culture. He often highlighted the importance of vision, grit, and surrounding oneself with talented individuals. His approach to business emphasized long-term growth through consistent effort and strategic planning​.

Conclusion
Gervase Warner’s tenure at Massy Holdings was a period of strategic growth and expansion, albeit marked by significant challenges. His leadership style and vision for a regional economic integration have left an indelible mark on the Caribbean business landscape. As Massy Holdings moves forward under new leadership, the principles and strategies Warner championed will likely continue to influence the company’s direction and success.

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