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PULSE Investments "tenuous at best and unsustainable at worst" Michelle Hirst, Research Manager, Stocks & Securities Ltd. (SSL)

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Over the past year, the price of Pulse Investments (PULS) shares has more than doubled, increasing by over 148%. Currently, at $5.70 per share, PULS’ market capitalization is J$1.5Bn – more than Radio Jamaica or Salada.

Our work finds that the market is severely overvaluing PULS. Accounting treatments on PULS’ financial statements, especially with regards to in-kind sponsorship, vary significantly from economic reality. Revenues, operating income and assets are all accounted for at levels significantly higher than their true economic value.

In addition, related party transactions such as real estate transfers and excessive management fees are value destructive to public shareholders in our view and are indicative of weak corporate governance more generally.

The sustainability of a business whose primary operation is obtaining sponsorship funds and capturing some of these funds for itself and its shareholders is tenuous at best and unsustainable at worst.

We recommend with conviction that clients SELL shares at current levels and believe that the Company’s fair value is between $0.45 to $0.60 per share.

Economic Value Only 1/10th of Accounting Value
According to PULS’ financial statements, the Company generated J$1.4Bn of revenue and $442MM of EBITDA in 2008. While the derivation of these figures may (and we emphasize may) be technically permissible from an accounting perspective, they bear no relationship whatsoever to PULS actual cash flow generation or the true economic value of PULS business. We believe that cash revenues are closer to J$161MM and cash EBITDA is closer J$41MM, both only about 1/10 of their “accounting” values (see Exhibit 1).

PULS generates revenue in four ways: receiving agency fees for fashion models it represents, receiving rental income for properties it sublets and receiving ticket sales and sponsorship consideration for events it promotes. Agency revenues, sublet income and ticket sales are all legitimate sources of revenue, reflected accurately by PULS in both accounting and economic terms. That said, they account for just $J37MM million or less than 3.0% of PULS revenues. The vast majority of PULS “revenues”, or over $J1.4Bn, come from sponsorship.

We do no believe that most of PULS sponsorship receipts are “revenue” in the economic sense of the word. Sponsorship consideration paid to PULS is meant to cover the cost of events, not to hit PULS bottom-line or ultimately be distributed to PULS shareholders. That is, every dollar of sponsorship received should be matched by a dollar of expense. In that sense, one can either count sponsorship as revenue with an equal offsetting cost or not count it at all; the end result in both cases should be the same: no impact on operating income or cash flow.

In the case of cash sponsorship, it is possible for PULS to capture a portion of payments either through explicit contracts with sponsors or more likely through indirect means (cutting event expenses below budget, etc). While this is good for PULS in the short-term, it is terrible for sponsors, PULS’ defacto customers. After all, if PULS can afford to keep excess sponsorship funds and still execute its events, sponsors will eventually argue (quite, reasonably) that they should contribute less. After all, sponsors are paying to promote their products by enabling the execution of events the PULS promotes, not to compensate PULS shareholders. In our view, this arrangement is unsustainable on an ongoing basis. That said, for the purposes of this analysis we conservatively assume that PULS is capable of retaining 15% of the J$146MM in cash it receives from sponsors.

The vast majority or 91% of PULS sponsorship “revenue” is not in the form of cash, but is paid in-kind. Like cash sponsorship, in-kind sponsorship should be matched by an expense or use of that in-kind contribution and therefore should not be income generating. Even worse however, in-kind sponsorship is much more difficult to convert to cash for the benefit of PULS and its shareholders. While in theory excess in-kind sponsorships of products like liquor could be sold for cash, this tactic is untenable in PULS’ case since its largest in-kind sponsorship contributions are multiyear entitlements to advertising and not product donations. As a result, from a cash flow or fundamental economic perspective, we believe with strong conviction that in-kind sponsorship contributions should not be considered revenue. PULS true cash or economic revenue is therefore merely: the sum of agency revenues, sublet income, ticket sales and cash sponsorship or J$161MM, roughly 1/10th of its accounting revenue.

PULS disclosure on the cost side is non-existent. However, for the purpose of this analysis we conservatively assume that PULS incurs only two operating cash expenses: the 85% of cash sponsorship that is used to fund events or J$105MM and the $17MM PULS it uses to pay management. This implies an EBITDA of J$40MM or once again only 1/10th of the EBITDA PULS reports on its financial statements.

After making these adjustments, it appears that the market is valuing PULS at 38x EV/EBITDA. A highly aggressive implied growth rate for any company, but especially one whose business model is essentially to get sponsorship, use as little of it as possible on its actual events and somehow capture as much of it as possible for itself and its shareholders. Applying a more reasonable 5x EV / EBTIDA multiple to our economic EBITDA implies an equity value for PULS of J$163MM or $0.60 per share. Once again this valuation is roughly 1/10th of its current market capitalization (see Exhibit 2).

A thorough examination of PULS balance sheet confirms our work (see Exhibit 3). The vast majority of PULS assets are in-kind sponsorship entitlements to advertising in future years which PULS capitalizes. Accounting for in-kind sponsorship as assets, particular advertising entitlements, is problematic for the same reasons discussed above with regards to revenues. In addition, because PULS must estimate the cost of future of advertising to arrive at an asset value, it’s even more problematic and subject to significant “judgments” from PULS management. We therefore assign no economic value to the advertising entitlements and unexpired sponsorship “assets” marked at J$953MM on PULS’ balance sheet.

Similarly, we assign no value to PULS’ patents which are currently being carried at over J$90MM or its leasehold real estate of J$353 which it after all does not own. PULS’ remaining book asset value consists of the cash on its balance sheet and its accounts receivables which collectively amount to US$158MM.

After subtracting PULS’ liabilities, excluding those due to related parties, we arrive at a book equity value of PULS of J$113MM or $0.42 per share – in line with our multiples-based valuation above and once again only a fraction of its current

market capitalization.
Corporate Governance and Value Destruction
In March, PULS executed a rights offering and obtained proceeds of J$127MM. It used these funds to retire debt and preference shares and pad its balance sheet. In addition, it acquired J$59MM of investment properties from related parties. Related parties also received J$17MM in fee based compensation. In aggregate, these transactions result in a net out flow of value to related parties funded by public shareholders. We believe both these transactions are value destructive and result in a misalignment of related party distributions from those received by public shareholders. In addition to our concerns on PULS business model and valuation, these corporate governance concerns further inform our bearish investment thesis.

Conclusion
We believe that PULS is significantly overvalued by the public market. PULS share price has increased dramatically in the last twelve months and now implies an equity value of J$1.5Bn which is difficult to reconcile on a relative value basis with other investment opportunities. PULS accounting treatment of its primary source of revenue and assets, in-kind sponsorship, severely overstates the economic value of these activities. Once these activities are accurately reflected, we find PULS to be worth only a fraction of its current trading value. In addition, we believe that PULS’ corporate governance structure and the sustainability of its sponsorship driven business should be worrisome to investors (especially given that PULS has already once been de-listed from the JSE).

We recommend with conviction that clients SELL shares at current levels and believe that the Company’s fair value is between $0.45 to $0.60 per share.

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Jamaican Teas Exiting Real Estate Activities As Nonrecurrent Loss On Sale Of Bell Road Factory Impacts Latest Results

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John Mahfood Chief Executive Officer and Director Jamaican Teas Limited has released the following report for  the Second Quarter Results to March 2024

Jamaican Teas Limited is pleased to report growth of $218m in its adjusted profits before tax for the half year to 31 March 2024 from $13.4m a year ago to $231 million this year before deducting a nonrecurrent loss of $92.49 million from the sale of its Bell Road factory in March 2024.

Manufacturing Division | Manufacturing revenues increased 11 percent in the quarter and 8 percent for the half year driven principally by a strong performance in the domestic market where revenues grew by 8 percent in the quarter and 18 percent for the half year. This performance was strongly influenced by the appointment of Wisynco as our new distributer for Jamaica on November 1, 2023. Export sales grew by 5 percent in the quarter and 3 percent for the half year.

Real Estate Division | No real estate sales were booked in the year ago quarter or half year as construction work on our new studios at Belvedere Road, in Kingston was still underway up to March 2023. Construction of this complex finished in Sept 2023 and sales of 7 units have been completed in the year to date.

Retail Division | For this quarter, retail revenues increased 11 per cent. This reflects a continuation of the accelerated revenue growth we have seen in our store in recent months. Our retailing profits increased by approximately 8 percent for the half year.

Investment Division | During this quarter, there was a reversal of the declines in the prices of stocks listed on the Jamaica Stock Exchange. The prices of stocks listed on USA Stock Exchanges continued to increase in the quarter. This resulted in significant unrealised gains in our overseas investments without a repeat of the offsetting investment losses on the local portfolio experienced in the year ago period.

Following from this, QWI Investments Limited (QWI) reported a pre-tax profit of $74 million for the quarter, a $102m reversal from their year ago loss of $28m. This builds on the positive trend seen in the first quarter, and resulted in a $238 million increase in the group’s total investment income for the half year.

REVENUES

JTL’s total revenues for the quarter increased by $134 million or 20 per cent overall from $666 million a year ago to $800 million this quarter. $86m of this increase reflected the absence of real estate revenues in the year ago period, as noted above. The half year revenues reflected a similar trend.
The increases shown in Investment Income mainly reflect the realized and unrealized overseas investment gains of QWI, partially offset by slightly lower dividend income and increased foreign exchange losses compared with the year ago period.

EXPENSES

Cost of sales moved from 78 percent of revenues a year ago to 80 percent this quarter. This apparently adverse trend is a reflection of low margin real estate sales this year versus no real estate sales a year ago. Adjusting for this year’s real estate sales, the gross profits of the manufacturing and retail divisions actually improved from 22.0 per cent to 22.5 percent in the quarter. The year to date gross profits showed a similar improvement.

A loss before deferred tax of $92.49 million was recorded on the sale of the Bell Road factory in March 2024. This is a non-recurrent expense and compares with the net revaluation surplus of $257.25 million recorded in prior financial years on the revaluation of this building between its acquisition and it’s disposal in March 2024. This surplus was forms part of the revaluation reserves in the company’s equity capital.

During the quarter, overhead costs increased slightly. For the year to date, the increase in overhead costs largely reflected increased costs for insurance and professional fees. The increase in interest expense during the quarter resulted from higher interest rates as well as increased short term borrowings by Jamaican Teas.

NET PROFIT

Net profit attributable to Jamaican Teas for the quarter after adjusting for the loss on the sale of the Bell Road factory was $73 million, a sharp increase from the $59 million profit in the same quarter of the previous year. Adjusted net earnings per share was 3.39 cents (2022/23 – earnings of 2.7 cents). The unadjusted net loss attributable to Jamaican Teas for the quarter was $18.99 million or 0.9 cents per share.

For the year to date, net profit attributable to Jamaican Teas after adjusting for the loss on the sale of the Bell Road factory was $114 million, a sharp increase from the $86 million profit in the previous year.

Adjusted earnings per share was 5.3 cents (2022/23 – earnings of 4.0 cents). The unadjusted Net profit attributable to Jamaican Teas for the year to date was $21.67 million or 0.9 cents per share.

FINANCIAL POSITION

The net decrease in fixed assets of $162 million since September 2023 is due mainly to the sale of the Bell Road factory building in March 2024 offset, in part, by the purchase of, and capital improvements and machinery purchases at, the Temple Hall factory.

The company moved its spice and dry pack production from leased premises at Montgomery Avenue to our Temple Hall factory in Feb 2024 and the tea division will be relocated during the third quarter of this financial year reuniting all the manufacturing activities into one facility.

The reduction in Investment properties since September 2023 reflects the sale of one of our buildings at Harbour Street, Kingston during the period. Efforts are continuing to sell the two remaining buildings at Harbour Street along with two other investment properties.

Housing inventories fell by $173 million due to the sale of the first seven units at Belvedere, while other inventories and receivables increased during the half year reflecting the increased scale of operations in our manufacturing activities.

OUTLOOK

In the half year to March 31 2024, the group has:
-purchased a new factory at Temple Hall and sold its Bell Road facility (subject to a short term lease back)
-transferred its manufacturing activities from Jamaican Teas Limited to Caribbean Dreams Foods Ltd, its wholly owned subsidiary
-installed two new co-General Managers at its manufacturing Division
-acquired new spice packing machinery that will facilitate a tripling of Saizon production adding up to $80 million in annual gross profit
-begun the process of exiting its real estate activities

In the next 6 months the group will complete its transfer from Bell Road to Temple Hall and continue the divestment of its real estate holdings. This is expected to make the group more cost efficient, better focused and more profitable. While many of the geopolitical developments taking place around the world are discouraging, the group is optimistic about its future.

For More Information CLICK HERE

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Supreme Ventures Group Reporting EPS of 33.51 cents for Q1 ending March 2024.

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Gary Peart Executive Chairman Supreme Ventures Limited (SVL) Has Released The Following Interim Report To Stockholders For The Three Months Ended March 31, 2024

The Group recognized Gross revenues of $13.08 billion representing an increase of $218.46 million or 2% over Q1 2023. This was driven by Gross ticket sales of $28.69 billion (Q1 2023: 29.01 billion) and a payout ratio of 69.90% (Q1 2023: 70.91%) on our core product line being Lottery.

Direct costs amounted to $10.12 billion which was relatively in line with the prior year comparative period. Total costs include contributions to Government agencies and related bodies of over $2.71 billion. Supreme Ventures Limited continues to be one of the largest contributors to the Government coffers at multiple times our profitability.

The earnings per share is 33.51 cents for the first quarter ending March 31, 2024. The Group has proposed interim dividends to external shareholders of 30.16 cents for the three months ending March 31, 2024.

Total assets increased by $1.28 billion to $22.15 billion.

For the first quarter 2024, the operating segments recorded results of $1.32 billion, an increase of $360 million or 38% in relation to Q1 2023.

The Group experienced double digit growth in net segment results across all operating segments. Our lottery segment, sports betting segment and pin codes segment improved by 13.86%, 22.48% and 17.96% respectively.

Our customers continue to achieve record winnings as we focus on increasing customer engagement across the base. Our continued investment in new games and promotions will result in long-term customer loyalty and positive results in the medium to long term.

The Group generated positive cash flows from operations of $369.53 million to close on March 31st, 2024, with a cash and cash equivalents balance of $2.83 billion (Q1 2023: 3.26 billion).

The Group met all requirements and covenants under the terms of agreement with bondholders and other credit facilities during the quarter.

We continue to put back over 93.00% of our earnings into the Jamaican economy via prizes, fees, taxes, and operational payments.

Today, we can proudly say that since 2004 we have contributed more than $27.5 billion to
the government for good causes.

Innovation remains a key strategic focus for SVL. We introduced the exciting new jackpot feature to the popular Money Time game, giving customers a chance to win a minimum of $100,000 every four minutes. The Money Time Jackpot promotion was officially launched on March 3 with a vibrant campaign starring top dancehall producer Rvssian and new singing sensation Nigy Boy.

Innovation extended to the fast-growing sports betting segment. Our flagship sports betting brand JustBet unveiled a fresh new look, reflecting the company’s commitment to providing customers with an enhanced betting experience. The brand refresh was followed up with the launch of the customer promotion in partnership with Sportsmax offering football fans an opportunity to watch the 2024 UEFA Champions League Finals live at London’s iconic Wembley Stadium.

The Group, through its subsidiary Fintech entered the Remittance and Bill payment space, forging a strategic partnership with Ria Money Transfer to roll out Evolve Money Transfer in February 2024 at various Supreme Ventures Locations.

Our micro-finance subsidiary, Mckayla, has also continued its upward growth trajectory, by increasing its loan book by 19% since December 2023, through the development of ground-breaking loan solutions and targeting the underserved population.

For more information CLICK HERE

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QWI Investments Performance Characterized By Strong Performance In Overseas Portfolios

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John Jackson Chairman of QWI Investments (QWI) has released the following report for the fiscal year ending September 2023

QWI Investments (QWI) continued the fiscal year ending September 2023 with a favourable second quarter profit before tax of $74.4 million versus a loss before tax of $27.8 million.

The quarter represented a continuation of the Company’s performance in the year ended September 2023, which was characterized by a strong performance in our overseas portfolios, partly offset by a weaker performance in the local stock market. Our overseas portfolio grew 27 percent in the quarter –better than the 22.5 percent growth in the S&P 500 and the 23.9 percent growth in the NASDAQ Composite index in the same period.

Market Backdrop

Market conditions in Jamaica, during the quarter, improved slightly, resulting in unrealised gains in the local portfolio.
The USA markets showed a strong increase in share prices as investors priced for continued
declines in interest rates in 2024.

QWI’s Jamaican investments, which represent 67 percent of the Company’s portfolio, produced $6.5 million of unrealised gains and realised losses of $6.2 million in the quarter — the latter as we rotated some of the stocks in the portfolio and reduced the Company’s bank overdraft.

In contrast, our overseas portfolio produced almost $156 million of unrealised gains.
The Net Asset Value (NAV) of the Company’s shares increased 3.2 percent from $1.25 in December 2023 to $1.29 at the end of March 2024.

This relative outperformance against the Jamaican indices reflects QWI’s exposure to the USA market, which saw significant gains in the quarter.

Unrealised exchange losses totalled $10.8 million versus $2.1 million a year ago.

Administration costs rose to almost $24.7 million compared to $24.2 million in the prior year

Statement of Financial Position

QWI ended the period with equity capital of $1.756 billion, up from $1.685 billion at end September 2023.
At the end of the period, the Company held US$4.4 million in equities listed in the USA and Trinidad and Tobago. The portfolio includes positions in several leading information technology companies, defense contractors and companies involved in housing and construction.

Investments in local and overseas stocks amounted to $2 billion with 67 percent represented by Jamaican listed stocks and the majority of the balance invested in the USA market.

Total borrowings at the end of March 2024 were little changed at $271 million.

Outlook

The Company’s Investment Committee actively monitors the investment portfolio and the markets in which we operate.
In the Jamaican market, Company earnings continue to be mixed while local interest rates, in particular the 30-day Bank of Jamaica CD, continue to rise, suggesting that sluggishness will persist in the short term.

In the USA, the outlook for significant interest rate cuts is receding, but this adverse trend has been offset by strong earnings growth for some companies and buoyancy in many economic indicators. Like the Jamaican market, this suggests that future opportunities will continue to be selective.

For more information CLICK HERE

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Prestige Holdings Enjoyed A Strong Performance For First Quarter Of Fiscal 2024.

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Christian E. Mouttet Chairman for Prestige Holdings has released the following Consolidated Unaudited Results for the Three Months Ended 29 February 2024

I am pleased to report that Prestige Holdings enjoyed a strong performance for the First Quarter of fiscal 2024. Group sales increased by 10% to $341 million from $309 million in the prior year, which resulted in a Profit Before Tax of $15.3 million compared to a profit of $11.6 million for the same period in 2023, a 32% increase. Profit After Tax, attributable to shareholders, increased by 25% from $7.8 million to $9.8 million. Cash flow from operations was $26.9 million and we ended the quarter with $100 million in cash having reduced total borrowings by $5.8 million. During the period we remodelled 2 restaurants and ended the period with 134 restaurants.

All brands posted solid performances during the quarter, with our Subway and Pizza Hut results driven by improved operations, efficiencies and strong demand for our innovative menu items and value offerings. Top line sales were impacted by the opening of five new Starbucks restaurants at Brentwood, Aranguez, O’Meara, St. Augustine and Amazonia Mall, Guyana, when compared to the First Quarter of 2023.

I am extremely pleased to report that KFC recently achieved a significant milestone of serving 150,000 Harvest Meals. The Harvest Meal Programme, which has been active for two years, is designed to provide unsold KFC food to participating NGOs in Trinidad and Tobago. This unsold food is carefully packaged and transported, following accepted global food safety protocols, and is then repurposed into delicious meals and served to the less fortunate. We are very happy to have the opportunity to positively impact the communities in which we operate by partnering with NGOs to provide meals to those in need.

As mentioned in my previous report, significant investment is planned in this financial year for new store development, including Guyana, as well as the remodelling of existing assets in Trinidad and Tobago. We expect these developments, as well as our continued brand initiatives, to continue to deliver positive results.
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GraceKennedy’s Strategic Spur Tree Spices Acquisition: Positioning For Growth

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GraceKennedy Limited’s recent acquisition of an increased stake in Spur Tree Spices (Jamaica) Limited has positioned it as the second-largest shareholder in the company. With an estimated 338,410,375 shares now under its belt, based on Spur Tree’s issued share count of 1,676,959,244 ordinary shares, GraceKennedy solidifies its influence in Jamaica’s culinary landscape.

Continued Expansion through M&A

This transaction marks the latest in GraceKennedy’s series of mergers and acquisitions (M&A) activities, reflecting the company’s aggressive growth strategy. Following its acquisitions of Scotia Insurance Caribbean Limited and Unibev Limited in 2023, as well as doubling its interest in Catherine’s Peak Bottling Company Limited to 70% in February 2023, GraceKennedy demonstrates its commitment to diversification and market expansion.

Spur Tree’s Strategic Evolution

Meanwhile, Spur Tree Spices is undergoing a strategic transformation, expanding beyond spices and seasonings to become a full-fledged food brand. With plans to launch more than two dozen new products on May 1 and a brand refresh to reflect its new focus, Spur Tree is poised for a significant market repositioning.

Diversification and Innovation

In the upcoming quarter, Spur Tree Spices is set to unveil an array of innovative products, including their much-anticipated line of dried spices. This strategic move represents the company’s foray into new categories and a substantial expansion of its product offerings. By diversifying its portfolio, Spur Tree aims to capture a broader consumer base and solidify its position as a leading player in the culinary industry.

Implications of the Acquisition

GraceKennedy’s increased stake in Spur Tree Spices not only strengthens its position in the spice market but also opens doors for collaboration and synergies between the two entities. As GraceKennedy continues to expand its presence through strategic acquisitions, it can leverage Spur Tree’s innovative product line-up to bolster its offerings and tap into new market segments.

GraceKennedy Limited’s acquisition of a significant stake in Spur Tree Spices marks a strategic milestone for both companies. With GraceKennedy’s growing influence and Spur Tree’s strategic evolution, the stage is set for a dynamic partnership that promises innovation, growth, and market leadership. As they navigate the evolving landscape of Jamaica’s culinary industry, GraceKennedy and Spur Tree Spices are poised to redefine the future of food, one spice at a time.

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